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Roku, Boston Beer, Equifax and Green Dot highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day

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For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – September 1, 2021 – Zacks Equity Research Shares of Roku, Inc. (ROKU - Free Report) as the Bull of the Day, The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM - Free Report) as the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Equifax (EFX - Free Report) and Green Dot Corp. (GDOT - Free Report) .

Here is a synopsis of all four stocks:

Bull of the Day:

Roku traded at new highs just around a month ago. But the streaming TV firm’s stock fell heading into its second quarter financial release in early August and then tumbled after its Q2 results on the back of what appear to be more near-term concerns.

Quick Q2 ‘Concerns’  

Roku stock fell following its second quarter earnings release on August 4 for a variety of reasons. The most widely cited causes of concern centered on a slowdown in streaming TV viewing rates and supply chain-based setbacks in its hardware business. Total streaming hours across Roku devices and TVs slipped by 1 billion compared to the first quarter of FY21 to 17.4 billion hours.

The sequential decline makes sense given the widespread economic reopening that began to kick into high gear during the second quarter, which meant people were watching less TV. But streaming TV was popular long before the pandemic and it will be long after.

Plus, Roku crushed its broader industry on a year-over-year basis, with Roku’s streaming hours up nearly 19% globally, against a roughly 19% decline in traditional TV consumption and a 2% dip from the year-ago period across the broader streaming industry.

Meanwhile, Roku’s margins on its streaming player business got crushed due to supply chain setbacks. Its gross player margin fell to -5.9%, compared to +13.8% in Q1 and +7.5% in the year-ago period. “Tight component supply conditions and shipping constraints continued to increase costs faster than expected across all consumer electronics categories,” Roku wrote in prepared remarks.

“In Q2, we insulated consumers from increased costs for Roku players, which resulted in Player gross margin turning negative in the quarter.”

The Positives

The main pullback culprits might pose some near-term worries, but Roku’s long-term bull case remains firmly in place. Roku’s small devices that plug into TVs and allow users to watch streaming TV content helped it become a mainstay in the industry.

Roku’s tech is built into smart TVs and it was the No. 1 smart TV OS sold in the U.S. in 2020, with nearly 40% market share. The company also sells wireless sound systems. But digital advertising and marketing is now its core business, with its ad-focused platform revenue accounting for over 80% of total second quarter sales.  

Roku makes money by selling ad space across its marketplace and taking a share of streaming service subscription revenue and ad inventory. Roku allows marketers to buy targeted ads, promote their streaming movies, shows, platforms, and more. The category soared 117% in Q2, while its overall revenue climbed 81% to easily beat the Zacks estimate.

Outlook

Roku swung from an adjusted loss of -$0.35 a share in Q2 FY20 to +$0.52 last quarter to top our projection by 270%—its fourth straight bottom-line beat.

The firm’s adjusted earnings outlook turned far more positive following its release, with its FY21 consensus estimate up 189% and its fiscal 2022 figure 79% higher. Roku’s strong adjusted earnings momentum helps it land a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) right now.

Looking ahead, Zacks estimates call for Roku’s FY21 revenue to surge 60% from $1.78 billion to $2.85 billion. Sales are then set to climb another 38% or $1.1 billion higher in 2022 to extend its streak of between roughly 40% and 60% revenue growth to five years. Plus, it’s projected to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.14 a share to +$1.30 and then climb another 34% to $1.74 a share in FY22.  

Other Fundamentals

The backdrop supporting Roku’s growth is straightforward as cord-cutting mounts and streaming TV rises. Plus, Roku is set to benefit from the expansion of the entire industry, including Netflix, Apple, Disney, Amazon and nearly every other media company, making it a standout pure-play streaming TV stock.

Roku’s bolstered ad tech business looks more captivating by the day as consumers turn off legacy media in favor of subscription services such as Netflix and Spotify. Roku bought Nielsen's Advanced Video Advertising business and “entered into a long-term strategic partnership.” The move further boosted its advertising credentials, as marketers clamor to reach consumers.

The firm also has its own channel that allows users to watch free, ad-supported streaming movies and TV shows. Roku is currently spending to build out its own original content library and grow internationally. Investors should note that its active accounts climbed 28% from the year-ago period to 55.1 million, while its monetized video ad impressions more than doubled YoY.

Bottom Line

Roku shares have fallen roughly 27% since the end of July to push it below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The chart at the top shows the wild up and down ride Roku has been on in 2021 and its near-term downturn could certainly continue. But Roku has gone on similar stretches before and the nearby three-year chart shows the stock is up 490%.  

The recent downturn has Roku sitting close to oversold RSI levels (30) at 37. The pullback also cooled off its valuation, with it trading 45% below its year-long highs at 13.3X forward 12-month sales. Roku’s current levels are rather enticing, especially as the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hit records.

Wall Street remains extremely bullish on Roku, with 16 of the 18 brokerage recommendations Zacks has resting at “Strong Buys.” The company operates in a space poised to dominate entertainment for the coming years, if not decades.  

Roku doesn’t care if Netflix has the most users or Disney has the most-watched show because it benefits from the industry as a whole. And digital could account for 65% of the roughly $240 billion-a-year advertising industry in the U.S. by 2023, up from just one-third of ad spending only a few years ago.

Bear of the Day:

The Boston Beer Company went on an insane roughly three-year run driven by the hard seltzer boom. Wall Street poured into the stock as its Truly brand flew off the shelves. But the craft beer staple and hard seltzer star became a victim of its own outsized success and growth.

SAM fell well short of Q2 earnings estimates on July 22 and disappointing guidance has helped send the stock plummeting.

The Boston Beer Basics

Boston Beer was at the forefront of the American craft beer revolution for decades. SAM then launched Truly Hard Seltzer in 2016 and helped kickstart the biggest alcoholic beverage trend since light beer.

Truly has been one of two dominant players in the category, alongside White Claw. Truly and hard seltzer’s expansion forced Anheuser-Busch InBev, Molson Coors, Constellation Brands and even Coca-Cola under its Topo Chico brand, to enter the hard seltzer market.

Boston Beer’s revenue surged 15% in fiscal 2018, another 26% in FY19, and 39% last year. The last three years were SAM’s strongest top-line growth since 2014. In fact, Boston Beer had never posted 30% or stronger revenue growth since it went public in the late 1990s until 2020.

SAM still posted 33% sales expansion in the second quarter, while its earnings dipped slightly. Along with the decline in EPS, the company missed our Zacks consensus estimate by 33% and its bottom-line guidance was disappointing.

The nearby chart showcases how far its adjusted fiscal 2021 and 2022 consensus earnings estimates have fallen since its report. Both estimates are 26% lower compared to where they were 60 days ago.  

“We overestimated the growth of the hard-seltzer category in the second quarter and the demand for Truly, which negatively impacted our volume and earnings for the quarter and our estimates for the remainder of the year,” CEO David Burwick said on a Q2 earnings call. “Our outlook for the hard-seltzer category in the second half of 2021 is uncertain”

Bottom Line

Boston Beer’s downward earnings revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) right now. The stock also lands “D” grades for Growth and Value in our Style Scores system and its Beverages – Alcohol space is in the bottom 16% of over 250 Zacks industries at the moment.

SAM shares have plummeted over 55% from their mid-April records to hover where they were around last June. The bottom has fallen out of the stock relatively quickly and it is trading way below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages. Boston Beer stock has also hovered well below oversold RSI levels for over a month now and it’s likely best to stay away from SAM until it shows some signs of recovery.

That said, Boston Beer’s revenue and earnings are still projected to expand at impressive clips this year and next. But clearly Wall Street decided the stock had come too far too fast, and its drop could get worse.

Additional content:

EFX or GDOT: Which Financial Services Stock to Buy?

The financial services industry has transformed significantly in recent years. With digitalization taking center stage, technology is playing a major role. Digitalization of banking and payment services has made it easier for people to conduct transactions.

Meanwhile, coronavirus-led lockdowns have increased people’s dependency on online platforms and online transaction methods, which has turned out to be a positive factor for the industry. With the market adopting a quantitative approach to save time, reduce operating expenses and increase work efficiency, companies in this industry should benefit. The Zacks Financial Transaction Services industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #110, which places it in the top 43% of more than 250 Zacks industries and indicates solid near-term growth prospects.

Given this encouraging backdrop, it is not a bad idea to undertake a comparative analysis of two financial transaction services industry stocks — Equifax and Green Dot Corp. Both stocks are part of the broader Zacks Business Services sector (one of the 16 Zacks sectors). While market capitalization of Equifax is $32.51 billion, that of Green Dot is $2.77 billion.

As both stocks carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), we are using certain other parameters to give investors a better insight. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Price Performance

Equifax clearly scores over Green Dot in terms of price performance. So far this year, shares of Equifax have gained 38.5%, against 10.3% decline of the industry it belongs to. Green Dot has lost 6.9% in the said time frame.

Earnings Expectations

Earnings growth and stock price gains often serve as indicators of a company’s prospects.

Equifax’s current-year earnings are projected to grow 6.9% while those of Green Dot are expected to grow 6.2%.  Looking at 2022, Equifax’s earnings are projected to grow 21.1% while those of Green Dot are expected to increase 20.5%.

Thus, Equifax has an edge over Green Dot in terms of yearly projected earnings growth.

Earnings Surprise History

Earnings surprise history helps investors to get an idea of the company’s performance in the previous quarters.

Equifax surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the previous four quarters while Green Dot surpassed the same in three of the previous four quarters.

However, Green Dot enjoys an edge over Equifax by delivering a higher average earnings surprise of 64.5% compared with the latter’s 17.7%.

Earnings Estimate Revisions

The direction of estimate revisions serves as an important pointer when it comes to the price of a stock.

Over the past 90 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Equifax’s current-year earnings has risen 6.4% versus an increase of 5.2% for Green Dot. For 2022, Equifax’s earnings estimates have improved 6.6% compared with an increase of 2.7% for Green Dot.

Based on yearly earnings estimate revisions in the past 90 days, Equifax is placed better than Green Dot.  

Valuation

The price to earnings ratio (P/E) metric is used to measure a company's value relative to its earnings. In general, a lower number or multiple is considered better than a higher one.

The trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E - TTM) multiple for Equifax and Green Dot is 34.2 and 40.9, respectively, while that of the industry is 31.9. Although both companies compare unfavorably with the industry, Equifax has an edge over Green Dot with a lower P/E - TTM value. 

Net Margin

Net profit margin helps investors evaluate a company’s business model in terms of pricing policy, cost structure and operating efficiency, and shows how good it is at converting revenues into profits. Hence, a strong net profit margin is preferred by all classes of investors.

Equifax and Green Dot have a TTM net margin of 15.5% and 1.8%, respectively. Though both stocks compare unfavorably with the industry’s figure of 34.8%, Equifax has a lead over Green Dot.

Bottom Line

Our comparative analysis shows that Equifax scores over Green Dot in terms of price performance, earnings estimate revisions, yearly earnings growth projection and net margin. However, Green Dot enjoys an advantage in terms of earnings surprise history.

Despite a faster share price rally so far this year, Equifax has a lower valuation compared with Green Dot.

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