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Incyte (INCY) Down 0.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Incyte (INCY - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Incyte due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Incyte Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

Incyte reported reported better-than-expected results for the second quarter of 2021, driven by growth in lead drug, Jakafi, and an encouraging uptake of Pemazyre (pemigatinib) in Europe.

The company reported adjusted earnings of 80 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of 73 cents. The company had reported earnings of $1.24 per share in the year-ago quarter.

Total revenues came in at $705.7 million, increasing 3% year over year and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $688 million.

Quarter in Detail

Total product and royalty revenues came in at $695.7 million, up 17% from the year-ago quarter. Jakafi revenues came in at $529 million, increasing 12% and beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $525 million.

Net product revenues of Iclusig amounted to $28.2 million, up from $22.8 million in the year-ago quarter.

Pemazyre, which was approved in April 2020, generated $17.9 million in sales during the quarter. The ongoing launch in the United States continues to go well and the launches in Europe and Japan are on track.

Jakavi (name outside the United States) royalty revenues from Novartis for commercialization in ex-U.S. markets grew 24% to $82 million. Olumiant’s product royalty revenues from Eli Lilly came in at $36 million, up 40%.

Incyte also earned royalties on Tabrecta sales from Novartis, amounting to $2.5 million in the quarter. The drug was approved in May 2020.

R&D expenses were $315.5 million, up 24% from the year-ago quarter due to the progression of the pipeline including parsaclisib.

SG&A expenses amounted to $152.5 million, up 46% from the prior-year quarter due to expenses related to the establishment of its dermatology commercial organization and activities to support the potential launch of ruxolitinib cream for the treatment of atopic dermatitis.

Pipeline and Regulatory Update

The FDA extended the review period for Incyte’s new drug application (NDA) for ruxolitinib cream for the treatment of atopic dermatitis (AD). The Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) action date has been extended by three months to Sep 21, 2021.

The agency also extended the review period for the supplemental new drug application (sNDA) for Jakafi (ruxolitinib), by three months. The sNDA is seeking the label expansion of the drug for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients aged 12 years and older with steroid-refractory chronic GVHD.

The FDA recently issued a Complete Response Letter (CRL) for the biologics license application (BLA) for its intravenous PD-1 inhibitor, retifanlimab, for the treatment of adult patients with locally advanced or metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the anal canal (SCAC) who have progressed on, or are intolerant of platinum-based chemotherapy.

In June, Incyte and partner MorphoSys announced that the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) issued a positive opinion recommending the conditional marketing authorization of tafasitamab (brand name: Monjuvi) in combination with lenalidomide, followed by tafasitamab monotherapy, for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) who are not eligible for autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT).

2021 Guidance

Incyte has tightened annual guidance for Jakafi net product revenues to reflect the impacts of higher-than-anticipated government rebates and chargebacks and the new PDUFA date for ruxolitinib for the treatment of steroid-refractory chronic GVHD.

The company expects Jakafi revenues of $2.125-$2.170 billion for 2021 (previous range: $2.125-$2.2 billion). Other Hematology/Oncology net product revenues are projected in the range of $155-$170 million.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision. The consensus estimate has shifted 12.5% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Incyte has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Incyte has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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