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Vail Resorts (MTN) to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 results on Sep 23, after the closing bell. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 0.8%.

How are Estimates Placed?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at a loss of $3.57 per share, indicating an improvement of 6.5% from a loss of $3.82 reported in the year-ago quarter.

Vail Resorts, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise


Vail Resorts, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Vail Resorts, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Vail Resorts, Inc. Quote


For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $188.8 million. The metric suggests an increase of 144.5% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Let's take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.

Factors at Play

Vail Resorts’ fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 performance is likely to reflect solid contributions from the 2021-2022 North American ski season. During the previous quarter’s earnings call, the company reported solid pass product sales (through Jun 1, 2021), up 50% in units and 33% in sales dollars from 2019 levels. The company expects the momentum to continue in the fiscal fourth quarter, primarily on the back of 20% price reduction in all pass products. This will likely lead to a stronger unit growth in new pass holders, higher pass renewals and increased trade up to higher-value passes. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter resort revenues is pegged at $194 million, indicating growth of 152% year over year.

Investments related to resources and technology (including staffing increases in call centers and self-service technology) along with infrastructure maintenance are likely to have benefitted the company in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, pandemic-related capacity constraints and limitations — particularly in food and beverage and ski school — are likely to have negatively impacted the company’s ancillary lines of business in the fiscal fourth quarter. This along with a rise in wages is expected to have hurt the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter bottom line.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vail Resorts this time around. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. But that's not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Vail Resorts has an Earnings ESP of -9.03%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary space that investors may consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Crocs, Inc. (CROX - Free Report) , sports a Zacks Rank #1, and has an Earnings ESP of +1.20%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Roku, Inc. (ROKU - Free Report) , has a Zacks Rank #1, and an Earnings ESP of +152%.

Camping World Holdings Inc. (CWH - Free Report) , has a Zacks Rank #3, and an Earnings ESP of +10.55%.

In-Depth Zacks Research for the Tickers Above

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Crocs, Inc. (CROX) - free report >>

Camping World (CWH) - free report >>

Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) - free report >>

Roku, Inc. (ROKU) - free report >>

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