The long-awaited private-sector payroll report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP Quick QuoteADP - Free Report) came out this morning, with results better than expected: 568K new jobs were created in the private sector during the month of September, better than expectations of 425K and the previous month’s downwardly revised 340K. Led by the Leisure & Hospitality space, which brought 266K for the month on its own, we again see the U.S. labor force experiencing healthy growth.

Aside from Leisure/Hospitality, Education/Healthcare gained 66K on the month, followed by Professional/Business Services at 61K, Trade/Transportation/Utilities 54K and Manufacturing 49K. This jobs report was strong across the board: Goods-producing filled 102K new positions last month, while Services predictably brought the lion’s share, 466K. This is the highest ADP jobs report in the last three months.

Here’s a new wrinkle: large companies (over 500 employees) brought in by far the most new employees in September at 390K. Medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) was next at +115K. Small businesses had the remainder 63K. Perhaps it’s the large-sized Leisure & Hospitality firms — hotels, airlines, casinos — which did most of the “work;” this may be the result of the decline in the Delta variant harming industries like travel and tourism.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are expected to come in around 500K, more than double the woefully below-forecast 235K reported for August. Many analysts do fault the rise in the Delta variant having harmed employment in the late summer, particularly in under-vaccinated regions of the U.S. like the Southeast and the Midwestern Plains. Now that the Delta variant appears to be on the wane, the pursuit of full employment looks to be back on.

Predictions are also for an Unemployment Rate of 5.1%, which would be a new post-Covid low. Prior to the pandemic ravaging the U.S. labor force, we were at a multi-low 3.5% unemployment, which is about as close as a country our size gets to full employment. But if, at this stage a year and a half removed from the Great Shut-In, we are able to surprise to the downside with a 4-handle on unemployment? That might be a reason for markets to celebrate.

Right now, pre-market indexes are doing the opposite: the Dow is -275 points, the S&P 500 is -40 and the Nasdaq -150 points at this hour. Global inflation concerns, particularly regarding the recent spike in natural gas prices, are dominating early morning trading to this point. So far in 2021, the S&P Energy index is +46% — that’s not a typo. Yesterday alone, nat-gas gained 9%. And this is as cold weather gas heating months are right around the corner.

Here at home, it may be useful to keep tabs on the federal government’s plans for infrastructure spending — both in terms of employment and energy usage: renewables are a big factor in the proposed $1.5 trillion buildout, which would help make natural gas spot prices less relevant. But the additional plan of a $3.5 trillion “human capital” infrastructure program, including proposals for free child care for working parents and government-sponsored community college, looks to be something of an albatross of Capitol Hill.