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TRI Pointe (TPH) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 21, before market open.

In the last reported quarter, its earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 23.5% and increased 133% year over year, driven by the continuation of favorable housing dynamics and elevated demand trends in all markets. The company's earnings topped analysts’ expectations in each of the trailing nine quarters.

Also, the company’s total home sales revenues grew 31.6% from the prior year, backed by a 26% rise in new home deliveries and a 5% increase in average sales price or ASP.

Trend in Estimate Revision

For the quarter to be reported, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has remained unchanged at 89 cents per share over the 30 days. Nonetheless, the estimated figure indicates a solid increase of 41.3% from 63 cents recorded a year ago. The consensus estimate for home sales revenues is pegged at $942 million, suggesting a rise of 13.5% from the prior-year quarter.

Factors to Consider

TRI Pointe’s third-quarter 2021 revenues and earnings are expected to have improved, given solid demand for homes. The demand trend is primarily driven by robust housing market fundamentals and a widespread shortage of housing supply. Also, higher pricing is expected to contribute to its top line. The imbalance in demand and supply of homes, and rising material costs prompted builders to raise prices.

TRI Pointe is expected to have benefited during the third quarter of 2021 from the increasing backlog and rapidly developed return-based model.

The company has been experiencing a broad-based activity level, both from a geographic and product segment standpoint. This trend is likely to have contributed to the company’s third-quarter revenues.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for home sales is pegged at $942 million, which indicates an increase of 13.5% from $830 million in the year-ago period. The consensus mark for Financial Services revenues is $2.52 million, indicating a slight fall of 1.2% from a year ago. Furthermore, the consensus mark for homes delivered and ASP is 1,494 units and $631K, respectively. This indicates a year-over-year rise of 14.7% for homes delivered and a marginal fall of ASP 0.5%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for new orders is currently pegged at 1,414 units, suggesting a 26.8% year-over-year drop. The same for backlog is pegged at 3,822 units, implying growth of 19.9% from the prior year.

Tri Pointe Homes Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Tri Pointe Homes Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Tri Pointe Homes Inc. price-eps-surprise | Tri Pointe Homes Inc. Quote

Quantitative Model Prediction

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for TRI Pointe this time around. That is because a stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. However, that is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: TRI Pointe has an Earnings ESP of -1.88%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: TRI Pointe currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks Worth a Look

Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarters to be reported.

Watsco, Inc. (WSO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.18% and a Zacks Rank #2.

KBR, Inc. (KBR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.66% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Otis Worldwide Corporation (OTIS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.91% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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