Valero Energy Corporation (VLO Quick QuoteVLO - Free Report) is set to continue its earnings beat streak for third-quarter 2021, whose results are set to be released on Oct 21, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the leading refiner’s adjusted earnings per share of 48 cents beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 15 cents, thanks to increased refinery throughput and higher renewable diesel sales volumes. Valero surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average being 68%, as shown in the chart below.

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share of 84 cents has witnessed three upward revisions over the past 30 days and one movement in the opposite direction. The estimated figure suggests a rise of 172.4% from the prior-year reported number.

The consensus estimate for third-quarter revenues of $26 billion indicates a 64.7% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

What the Quantitative Model Suggests

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Valero this time around as well. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for the company stands at +2.69%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at 87 cents per share, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 84 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.  

Zacks Rank: Valero currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Factors Driving the Better-Than-Expected Earnings

Energy demand in the U.S. market witnessed a massive recovery in the third quarter. The rolling out of coronavirus vaccines on a large scale enabled people to step out for work and leisure. The favorable scenario triggered a recovery in demand for refined petroleum products in the September quarter. With refining contributing the most among all operating segments of Valero, increased demand for gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil and jet fuel is likely to have aided the company’s total throughput volumes.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total refining throughput volumes is pegged at 2,791 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d), indicating an improvement from the year-ago quarter’s 2,526 MBbls/d. As such, the consensus estimate for refining margin per barrel of throughput is pegged at $9.68, suggesting an increase from $4.10 in the year-ago quarter.

Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted operating profit from the Ethanol segment is pegged at $36 million, indicating an improvement from the year-ago quarter’s $22 million. Increasing profits from refining and ethanol businesses are expected to have positioned the company for an earnings beat for the third quarter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies from the Energy space that you may also want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

EQT Corporation (EQT Quick QuoteEQT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +20.31% and a Zacks Rank of 2. It is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Oct 27. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Range Resources Corporation (RRC Quick QuoteRRC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.63% and is a Zacks #1 Ranked player. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct 26.

Continental Resources, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +0.68% and a Zacks Rank #1. The firm is scheduled to release quarterly earnings on Nov 1.