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Is a Beat in the Offing for Ameriprise (AMP) in Q3 Earnings?

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Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 26, after market close. Its revenues and earnings are anticipated to have witnessed a rise in the quarter on a year-over-year basis.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Higher revenues along with an improvement in assets under management (AUM) and assets under administration (AUA) balance supported the results. However, a rise in expenses was a headwind.

Ameriprise has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 6.6%.

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $5.46 per share, which indicates a significant rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. The estimate has been unchanged over the past seven days.

The consensus estimate for total sales is pegged at $3.54 billion, which indicates an 18.7% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Estimates & Key Factors to Note for Q3

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for management and financial advice fees (constituting more than 60% of the company’s total net revenues) is pegged at $2.35 billion, which suggests a rise of 4.3% from the prior quarter’s reported number.

The consensus estimate for distribution fees of $524 million indicates a rise of 15.9% sequentially. However, the consensus estimate for premiums, policy and contract charges is pegged at $361 million, indicating a marginal sequential decline.

The consensus estimate for net investment income of $243 million suggests a decline of 12.6% from the previous quarter’s reported figure. Likewise, the consensus mark for other revenues of $65 million indicates a 13.3% sequential decline.

The company’s Asset Management segment has recorded net outflows over the past few years, which negatively impacted asset growth. However, in 2020 and the first half of 2021, the segment recorded overall net inflows. Given the expectation of a similar trend in the to-be-reported quarter, the segment’s asset balances are likely to have been positively impacted.

Likewise, based on expectations of improved advisor productivity, the Advice & Wealth Management segment is expected to have recorded growth in assets in the third quarter.

While Ameriprise’s initiatives to focus on cost management have resulted in controlled general and administration expenses in the past, overall costs are anticipated to have been elevated in the to-be-reported quarter due to costs related to technology upgrades.

Earnings Whispers

According to our quantitative model, the chances of Ameriprise beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Ameriprise has an Earnings ESP of +1.10%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a few other finance stocks that you may want to consider, as according to our model, these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF - Free Report) is slated to report quarterly earnings on Oct 26. The company, holding a Zacks Rank of 2 at present, has an Earnings ESP of +4.66%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Earnings ESP for First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (FIBK - Free Report) is +4.46%. This Zacks #3 Ranked company is also scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Oct 26.

Civista Bancshares, Inc. (CIVB - Free Report) is scheduled to release results on Oct 27. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 and has an Earnings ESP of +5.32%.