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Century (CENX) Up 1.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Century Aluminum (CENX - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Century due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Century Aluminum’s Q3 Earnings Beat, Sales Lag Estimates

Century Aluminum reported a net loss of $52.4 million or 58 cents per share in third-quarter 2021, narrower than a loss of $58.2 million or 65 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. The bottom line in the reported quarter was affected by $46.7 million of exceptional items.

Barring one-time items, the adjusted loss was 6 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 10 cents.

Revenues and Shipments

The company generated net sales of $581.4 million in the third quarter, climbing 48% year over year from $392.9 million. The top line, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $602.9 million. Net sales in the third quarter of 2021 increased around 10% sequentially due to higher aluminum prices and a rise in regional premiums.

Shipments of primary aluminum were 196,095 tons, down 3.4% year over year but up 3% sequentially led by the restart project at Mt. Holly and ongoing project activity at Hawesville.

Financials

At the end of the quarter, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $57.6 million, down 29.2% year over year.

Net cash used in operating activities was $12.1 million in the nine months ended Sep 30, 2021.

Outlook

The company stated that it is on track with the progress of the expansion projects at Mt. Holly and Hawesville, and expects both projects to be completed by the year-end, which will provide the much-needed additional units to the marketplace as well as additional LME and regional premium pricing exposure. Also, it has started the construction of a new 150,000 ton low-carbon billet cast-house at Grundartangi. The completion of the 2-year project promises to cast over 80% of Grundartangi’s production as value-added products, further strengthening the world-class asset. The billets and other value-added products at Grundartangi will continue to be produced using 100% renewable energy, thereby expanding the company’s Natur-Al line of low-carbon products and bringing low-carbon billets to the European marketplace.

The company also noted that global energy shortages and China’s de-carbonization policies have led to production cuts in China and Europe, leading the global aluminum market into deficit and taking down aluminum inventories to multi-year lows.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -84.3% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Century has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Century has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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