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Walgreens (WBA) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jan 6, before market open.

In the fiscal fourth quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 13.6 %. WBA’s earnings outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 24.13%.

Let’s look at how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Factors at Play

In recent months, Walgreens’ Find Care platform and Boots Health Hub have shown continued expansion accelerated by the pandemic, and is witnessing a significant increase in online visits. During the fiscal fourth quarter, the company expanded to nationwide same-day home delivery across multiple marketplace platforms, bringing the total same-day home delivery and pickup transactions to more than 23 million. This is expected to have accelerated the company’s digital platform growth in the fiscal first quarter, thus adding to the top line.

In September 2021, Walgreens, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Walgreen Co., completed majority investment in Shields -- an industry leader in integrated, health system-owned specialty pharmacy care. Further, during the fiscal fourth quarter, Walgreens Boots and Blue Shield of California announced a new strategic collaboration to expand access to healthcare, lower costs and bring innovative services to enhance the consumer experience for individuals, families and communities throughout California. These developments are expected to have contributed to the Walgreens’ fiscal first-quarter top line.

Retail Pharmacy USA

In the fiscal first quarter, Walgreens is expected to have witnessed growth in retail pharmacy business banking on an improved business environment. The company is currently engaging customers through the mass personalization strategy that boosted retail sales during the last-reported quarter. Walgreens' advertising group continues to expand its offerings and has now executed more than 900 campaigns and activated over 200 brands. During the fourth quarter, Walgreens announced the launch of Walgreens Health, which brings equitable, personalized, whole-person healthcare to local communities across America, wherever and however it’s best for consumers – in-store, at home, at the doctor’s office and via mobile app. This development is expected to have driven customer adoption rate in the to-be-reported quarter.

Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

In the earlier-reported quarter, Walgreens noted growing strength in health and wellness. In its October 2021 update, the company confirmed the launch of more than 60 new beauty brands in the last 18 months, including Anastasia Beauty Beverly Hills, Uoma Beauty and Bic Beauty. This is likely to have contributed to Walgreens’ health and beauty businesses in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Retail Pharmacy USA’s revenues is pegged at $28.26 billion, suggesting a rise of 3.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Retail Pharmacy International

In the earlier-reported quarter, international business witnessed a rebound in sales and profitability due to focused execution across Boots UK, Boots Ireland and Opticians, led by strong growth across all e-commerce businesses. The economy's reopening and faster digital platform adoption are expected to have accelerated international businesses in the to-be reported quarter.

During the company’s October 2021 update, Walgreens noted that as part of the Health Hub, the company recently launched Boots ONLINE DOCTOR -- a new innovative and market-leading service that connects physicians and patients online. Boots.com is likely to have continued with its stellar performance on increasing digital transactions and the launch of a new platform, thus driving revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Retail Pharmacy International’s revenues is pegged at $5.41 billion, suggesting a surge of 108% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Pharmaceutical Wholesale

Within the Pharmaceutical Wholesale division in the last-reported quarter, the segment registered robust growth, including the higher sales from the formation of wholesale joint venture in Germany.  This is expected to have continued during the to-be reported quarter as well, thus adding to the top line. However, slow recovery across international markets is expected to have partially affected growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pharmaceutical Wholesale’s revenues is pegged at $5.88 billion, suggesting a fall of 17.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

What Our Model Suggests

Per our proven model, a stock with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) has higher chances of beating estimates. That is not the case here as you can see:

Earnings ESP: Walgreens has an Earnings ESP of -26.90%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks With Favorable Combinations

Here are some companies that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

McKesson Corporation (MCK - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.99% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

McKesson’s long-term earnings growth rate is estimated at 9%. MCK’s earnings yield of 9.1% compares favorably with the industry’s 3.3%.

ModivCare Inc. (MODV - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.25% and sports a Zacks Rank #1.

ModivCare long-term earnings growth rate is estimated at 12%. MODV’s earnings yield of 5% compares favorably with the industry’s (1.4%).

Doximity, Inc. (DOCS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +44.30% and carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Doximity long-term earnings growth rate is estimated at 8%. DOCS’ earnings yield of 1.1% compares favorably with the industry’s (1.4%).

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