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Will Poor Segmental Performance Hurt Northrop (NOC) Q4 Earnings?
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Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2021 results on Jan 27, 2022, before the market opens.
Northrop has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 14.74%, on average. Lower sales in most of its operating business segments might have hurt the overall top line in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.
Aeronautic Systems Remains Gloomy
Some programs in the Aeronautic Systems portfolio may not exhibit growth momentum as they are expected to have reached their saturation levels. Moreover, lower sales from the JSTARS, F-18 as well as restricted portfolio are expected to have negatively impacted the Aeronautic segment’s performance inthe soon-to-be-reported quarter. This, in turn, might have had resulted in overall lower revenues from the segment in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Aeronautic Systems segment’s revenues in the fourth quarter is pegged at $2,978 million, indicating a decline of 14.6% from revenues reported in the year-ago quarter.
Defense Systems Performance Remains Gloomy
The closing of the contract at the Army’s Lake City ammunition plant might have weighed down on the Defense Systems unit’s revenues in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. However, higher volumes on several Mission Readiness programs might have partially offset the downside effect on its segment’s performance.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Defense Systems segment’s revenues in the fourth quarter is pegged at $1,467 million, indicating a decline of 23.5% from revenues reported in the year-ago quarter.
Mission Systems – Another Drag on Revenues
Northrop’s Mission Systems segment may reflect the impact of the reduction in sales related to the IT services divestiture, which might have dented the sales performance for the fourth quarter. However, higher volumes from the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program, the Joint Counter Radio-Controlled Improvised Explosive Device Electronic Warfare program and land systems are expected to have favorably contributed to its sales performance in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Lower volumes on F-35 and restricted programs might have partially offset the upside in the segment’s performance.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mission System’s revenues in the fourth quarter is pegged at $2,564 million, indicating a decline of 6.3% from revenues reported in the year-ago quarter.
Space Systems – a Revenue Contributor
Revenues from the Space System business unit are expected to gain from higher sales from both the Launch & Strategic Missiles and Space business areas. This, in turn, must have boosted the segment’s revenues in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Moreover, various development programs as well as higher volumes of restricted programs might have positively contributed to its overall revenues inthe soon-to-be-reported quarter.
Northrop Grumman Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
With the majority of Northrop’s segments anticipated to report lower sales, one can remain skeptical about the company’s top line in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $8.97 billion, indicating a decrease of 12.2% from the prior-year reported figure.
Northrop expects its earnings to benefit from corporate unallocated and pension adjustments, which might have added impetus to its bottom line in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. However, supply-chain challenges, labor shortages and increasing inflation are some of the factors that might have had an adverse impact on the company’s fourth-quarter bottom line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earningsis pegged at $5.95 per share, indicating a decrease of 9.7% from the prior-year reported figure.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for NOC this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.
Northrop has an Earnings ESP of +1.01% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell, before they’re reported, with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks to Consider
Here are three defense players you may want to consider as they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:
Aerojet has a four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 2.17%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AJRD’s fourth-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $578.5 million and 50 cents per share, respectively.
Embraer S.A. (ERJ - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +17.65% and a Zacks Rank #3. Embraer has a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 42.21%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ERJ’s fourth-quarter earnings, pegged at 9 cents per share, suggests an improvement of 28.6% over the past 30 days. Embraer boasts a long-term earnings growth rate of 17%.
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +26.12% and a Zacks Rank #2. Virgin Galactic has a four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 33.86%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SPCE’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at a loss of 39 cents per share, indicating a decline of 25.8% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Its 2021 sales estimate, pegged at $3.12 million, suggests a huge improvement when compared to $0.24 million reported in the year-ago quarter.
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Will Poor Segmental Performance Hurt Northrop (NOC) Q4 Earnings?
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2021 results on Jan 27, 2022, before the market opens.
Northrop has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 14.74%, on average. Lower sales in most of its operating business segments might have hurt the overall top line in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.
Aeronautic Systems Remains Gloomy
Some programs in the Aeronautic Systems portfolio may not exhibit growth momentum as they are expected to have reached their saturation levels. Moreover, lower sales from the JSTARS, F-18 as well as restricted portfolio are expected to have negatively impacted the Aeronautic segment’s performance inthe soon-to-be-reported quarter. This, in turn, might have had resulted in overall lower revenues from the segment in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Aeronautic Systems segment’s revenues in the fourth quarter is pegged at $2,978 million, indicating a decline of 14.6% from revenues reported in the year-ago quarter.
Defense Systems Performance Remains Gloomy
The closing of the contract at the Army’s Lake City ammunition plant might have weighed down on the Defense Systems unit’s revenues in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. However, higher volumes on several Mission Readiness programs might have partially offset the downside effect on its segment’s performance.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Defense Systems segment’s revenues in the fourth quarter is pegged at $1,467 million, indicating a decline of 23.5% from revenues reported in the year-ago quarter.
Mission Systems – Another Drag on Revenues
Northrop’s Mission Systems segment may reflect the impact of the reduction in sales related to the IT services divestiture, which might have dented the sales performance for the fourth quarter. However, higher volumes from the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program, the Joint Counter Radio-Controlled Improvised Explosive Device Electronic Warfare program and land systems are expected to have favorably contributed to its sales performance in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Lower volumes on F-35 and restricted programs might have partially offset the upside in the segment’s performance.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mission System’s revenues in the fourth quarter is pegged at $2,564 million, indicating a decline of 6.3% from revenues reported in the year-ago quarter.
Space Systems – a Revenue Contributor
Revenues from the Space System business unit are expected to gain from higher sales from both the Launch & Strategic Missiles and Space business areas. This, in turn, must have boosted the segment’s revenues in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Moreover, various development programs as well as higher volumes of restricted programs might have positively contributed to its overall revenues inthe soon-to-be-reported quarter.
Northrop Grumman Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Northrop Grumman Corporation price-eps-surprise | Northrop Grumman Corporation Quote
Fourth-Quarter Estimates
With the majority of Northrop’s segments anticipated to report lower sales, one can remain skeptical about the company’s top line in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $8.97 billion, indicating a decrease of 12.2% from the prior-year reported figure.
Northrop expects its earnings to benefit from corporate unallocated and pension adjustments, which might have added impetus to its bottom line in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. However, supply-chain challenges, labor shortages and increasing inflation are some of the factors that might have had an adverse impact on the company’s fourth-quarter bottom line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earningsis pegged at $5.95 per share, indicating a decrease of 9.7% from the prior-year reported figure.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for NOC this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.
Northrop has an Earnings ESP of +1.01% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell, before they’re reported, with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks to Consider
Here are three defense players you may want to consider as they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:
Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings has an Earnings ESP of +2.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Aerojet has a four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 2.17%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AJRD’s fourth-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $578.5 million and 50 cents per share, respectively.
Embraer S.A. (ERJ - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +17.65% and a Zacks Rank #3. Embraer has a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 42.21%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ERJ’s fourth-quarter earnings, pegged at 9 cents per share, suggests an improvement of 28.6% over the past 30 days. Embraer boasts a long-term earnings growth rate of 17%.
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +26.12% and a Zacks Rank #2. Virgin Galactic has a four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 33.86%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SPCE’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at a loss of 39 cents per share, indicating a decline of 25.8% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Its 2021 sales estimate, pegged at $3.12 million, suggests a huge improvement when compared to $0.24 million reported in the year-ago quarter.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.