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Here's How Simon Property (SPG) Looks Ahead of Q4 Earnings

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Simon Property Group’s (SPG - Free Report) fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 results are scheduled to be out on Feb 7 after the bell. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display growth in both revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.

In the last reported quarter, this Indianapolis, IN-based retail real estate investment trust (REIT) delivered a surprise of 26.72% in terms of FFO per share. This performance was backed by the better-than-expected top line.

In the last four quarters, the company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and missed the same on the other, the average surprise being 14.81%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Simon Property Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Simon Property Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Simon Property Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Simon Property Group, Inc. Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up before this announcement.

Factors at Play

Per a report from CBRE Group (CBRE - Free Report) , total retail sales increased 16.9% year over year in the fourth quarter, reflecting the strength of a strong holiday shopping season in 2021.

The fourth quarter marked the fifth consecutive quarter of positive retail absorption (+20.6 million square feet). Also, the average asking rent improved 1.6% year over year to $21.87 per square foot in the fourth quarter as prime space grew scarce.

The overall retail availability rate shrunk by 30 basis points in the December-end quarter to a 10-year low of 5.6%. New construction deliveries remained muted in the fourth quarter, with 23.5 million square feet delivered in 2021, down 36% year over year. The scarcity of new prime space has fueled occupancy levels and aided growth in rents.

Simon Property is anticipated to have benefited from the recovery in the retail real estate market. This retail REIT behemoth has wide exposure to different retail assets, including premium malls, lifestyle centers and other retail properties across the United States.

With the resumption of the economy and an improving leasing environment, Simon Property is likely to have benefited from its superior assets in premium locations. In the third quarter, SPG recorded increased leasing volumes, occupancy gains, shopper traffic and retail sales. With widespread vaccination, an improving economy and solid consumer demand, this trend is expected to have continued in the fourth quarter. As such, Simon Property is expected to have witnessed growth in both its earnings and cash flow during the quarter under consideration.

Further, the adoption of an omnichannel strategy and successful tie-ups with premium retailers have been Simon Property’s key focus. This retail REIT has also been tapping growth opportunities by assisting digital brands to enhance their brick-and-mortar presence. The company capitalized on buying out recognized retail brands in bankruptcy. With brands generating a decent amount from digital sales, investments in the same seem strategic for SPG. Also, the company is anticipated to have maintained its decent financial strength during the December-end quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter lease income is pegged at $1.25 billion, up from the year-ago period’s $1.03 billion. In addition, the consensus mark for quarterly revenues currently stands at $1.35 billion, suggesting a jump of 19.1% year over year. Occupancy of its total portfolio is projected at 93% for the quarter.

Simon Property’s activities during the October-December quarter were adequate to gain analyst confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FFO per share has moved 1.1% north in the past month and currently stands at $2.88. The figure also calls for 32.7% growth from the year-earlier period.

For full-year 2021, Simon Property projected FFO in the range of $11.55-$11.65.

For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FFO per share has moved 1% north to $11.73    over the past month. The figure indicates a 28.8% increase year over year on revenues of $5.14 billion.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are three stocks from the retail REIT sector — Agree Realty Corporation (ADC - Free Report) , Regency Centers Corporation (REG - Free Report) and STORE Capital Corporation — that you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an FFO beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell, before they’re reported, with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Agree Realty Corporation, slated to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 22, has an Earnings ESP of +1.26% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Regency Centers Corporation, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Feb 10, has an Earnings ESP of +0.67% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

STORE Capital, slated to report quarterly numbers on Feb 23, has an Earnings ESP of +1.45 % and carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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