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What's in the Cards for Flowers Foods (FLO) in Q4 Earnings?

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Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO - Free Report) is likely to register top and bottom-line declines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 results on Feb 10. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $979.1 million, suggesting a 4.3% dip from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings has been stable at 22 cents per share in the past 30 days. The projection shows a decrease of 21.4% from the comparable quarter’s reported number in the last fiscal year. The producer and marketer of packaged bakery products has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.4%, on average. Flowers Foods delivered an earnings surprise of 20% in the last reported quarter.

For fiscal 2021, the consensus mark for revenues is pegged at 4.33 billion, indicating a 1.4% slip from last fiscal year’s tally. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings stands at $1.26, suggesting a fall of 3.8% from the year-ago fiscal’s reported figure.

Key Factors

Flowers Foods’ results for the fiscal fourth quarter might have been hurt by commodity, freight, labor and logistics cost inflation. Input cost inflation is stemming from higher input prices and challenges associated with sourcing them. Also, elevated marketing investments and higher transportation costs were deterrents.

On its last earnings call, management had projected sales in the range of $4.300-$4.344 billion for fiscal 2021, suggesting a 1-2% decline from the last fiscal year’s reported figure. This outlook includes a 1.8% sales reduction due to one less week in the current year. For fiscal 2021, management had envisioned earnings per share of $1.22-$1.26.

On the flip side, management has been undertaking pricing actions to counter the commodity cost inflation for a while. Flowers Foods is focused on its core priorities, including developing its team, concentrating on the brands and prioritizing its margins. Its strategic acquisitions have also been contributing to results so far. FLO’s non-retail business is steadily recovering from the effects of the pandemic too.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Flowers Foods this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Flowers Foods, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Flowers Foods, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Flowers Foods, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Flowers Foods, Inc. Quote

Flowers Foods currently has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Costco (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.26% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $2.66 suggests an increase of 24.3% from the number reported in the comparable quarter of the year-ago fiscal. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Costco’s top line is expected to increase from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $51.1 billion, which suggests growth of 14% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.3%, on average.

Grocery Outlet (GO - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.45% and a Zacks Rank #3. GO is anticipated to register a bottom-line decline when it reports fourth-quarter 2021 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Grocery Outlet’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $774.2 million, indicating a dip of 4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Grocery Outlet’s bottom line has been stable in the past seven days at 20 cents per share. However, the consensus estimate for earnings suggests a decline of 16.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. GO delivered an earnings beat of 4.5%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Target (TGT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.50% and a Zacks Rank of 3. TGT is anticipated to register a top-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Target’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $31.5 billion, indicating growth of 11.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Target’s bottom line has been stable in the past seven days at $2.85 per share, which suggests a rise of 6.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. TGT delivered an earnings beat of 19.7%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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