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Is a Beat Likely for Moderna (MRNA) This Earnings Season?
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Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) , slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 results on Feb 24, before market open, is expected to beat expectations. In the last-reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 14.06%.
Moderna’s share price has declined 8.5% in the past year compared with the industry’s decrease of 39.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company’s surprise history has been mixed so far, with its earnings beating estimates in two of the trailing four quarters while missing the same twice. The average negative surprise is 35.84%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.
Factors to Note
During the fourth quarter, Moderna received authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, for use in adolsecents in several countries. Moroever, the booster or third dose also received FDA approval for emergency use in adults. In its preliminary results for 2021, the company announced that it recorded approximately $17.5 billion for the full-year from the delivery of 807 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine globally.
Moderna recorded $10.7 billion of product sales in the first nine months. The company is estimated to have recorded approximately $6.8 billion in sales from Spikevax during the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for product sales stands at $6.55 billion for the fourth quarter.
Investors are likely to focus on updates related to the Omicron-specific booster development progress as well as on any regulatory update related to the authorization of Spikevax for emergency use in adolescents in the United States on the fourth-quarter earnings call
Moderna’s grant revenues in the fourth quarter are likely to have been driven by an award from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (“BARDA”) under the agreement to develop its coronavirus vaccine programs. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for grant revenues is pegged at $99 million.
Moderna is expanding its manufacturing capabilities to support the delivery of Spikevax doses. Apart from its COVID-19 vaccine candidates, Moderna is developing 23 candidates in different stages of clinical studies, majorly mRNA-based products targeting different indications, including cancer. The company initiated a phase III study on its cytomegalovirus vaccine candidate in October 2021. These developments are likely to have increased its operating expenses during the fourth quarter.
Investors will likely ask questions on the progress of Moderna’s pipeline candidates, especially those in the late stage. The successful development will bring additional revenues and reduce the dependence of the company solely on Spikevax for revenues.
The company is also developing a few pipeline candidates in collaboration with partners like AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) and Merck (MRK - Free Report) , which use its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. The partners pay milestone payments to Moderna, which are reflected as collaboration revenues. These collaborations revenues vary every quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for collaboration revenues for the fourth quarter is pegged at $26.28 million.
Moderna and AstraZeneca are evaluating different candidates in early- to mid-stage studies targeting oncology and cardiovascular indications. The leading candidate being developed in partnership with AstraZeneca is AZD8601 as treatment for ischemic heart disease.
Moderna and Merck have been developing a personalized cancer vaccine for recurrence-free survival for a year. Merck has been conducting a phase II study evaluating the cancer vaccine in combination with Keytruda targeting various oncology indications.
What Does Our Model Say?
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Moderna this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate ($10.02 per share) and the Zacks Consensus Estimate ($9.83 per share), is +1.9%.
Gamida’s stock has surged 33.1% year to date. Gamida topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters. GMDA has a negative four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.60%, on average.
Image: Shutterstock
Is a Beat Likely for Moderna (MRNA) This Earnings Season?
Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) , slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 results on Feb 24, before market open, is expected to beat expectations. In the last-reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 14.06%.
Moderna’s share price has declined 8.5% in the past year compared with the industry’s decrease of 39.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company’s surprise history has been mixed so far, with its earnings beating estimates in two of the trailing four quarters while missing the same twice. The average negative surprise is 35.84%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.
Factors to Note
During the fourth quarter, Moderna received authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, for use in adolsecents in several countries. Moroever, the booster or third dose also received FDA approval for emergency use in adults. In its preliminary results for 2021, the company announced that it recorded approximately $17.5 billion for the full-year from the delivery of 807 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine globally.
Moderna recorded $10.7 billion of product sales in the first nine months. The company is estimated to have recorded approximately $6.8 billion in sales from Spikevax during the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for product sales stands at $6.55 billion for the fourth quarter.
Investors are likely to focus on updates related to the Omicron-specific booster development progress as well as on any regulatory update related to the authorization of Spikevax for emergency use in adolescents in the United States on the fourth-quarter earnings call
Moderna’s grant revenues in the fourth quarter are likely to have been driven by an award from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (“BARDA”) under the agreement to develop its coronavirus vaccine programs. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for grant revenues is pegged at $99 million.
Moderna is expanding its manufacturing capabilities to support the delivery of Spikevax doses. Apart from its COVID-19 vaccine candidates, Moderna is developing 23 candidates in different stages of clinical studies, majorly mRNA-based products targeting different indications, including cancer. The company initiated a phase III study on its cytomegalovirus vaccine candidate in October 2021. These developments are likely to have increased its operating expenses during the fourth quarter.
Investors will likely ask questions on the progress of Moderna’s pipeline candidates, especially those in the late stage. The successful development will bring additional revenues and reduce the dependence of the company solely on Spikevax for revenues.
The company is also developing a few pipeline candidates in collaboration with partners like AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) and Merck (MRK - Free Report) , which use its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. The partners pay milestone payments to Moderna, which are reflected as collaboration revenues. These collaborations revenues vary every quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for collaboration revenues for the fourth quarter is pegged at $26.28 million.
Moderna and AstraZeneca are evaluating different candidates in early- to mid-stage studies targeting oncology and cardiovascular indications. The leading candidate being developed in partnership with AstraZeneca is AZD8601 as treatment for ischemic heart disease.
Moderna and Merck have been developing a personalized cancer vaccine for recurrence-free survival for a year. Merck has been conducting a phase II study evaluating the cancer vaccine in combination with Keytruda targeting various oncology indications.
What Does Our Model Say?
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Moderna this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate ($10.02 per share) and the Zacks Consensus Estimate ($9.83 per share), is +1.9%.
Zacks Rank: Moderna carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Moderna, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Moderna, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Moderna, Inc. Quote
Another Stock to Consider
Here is a biotech stock that also has the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Gamida Cell has an Earnings ESP of +13.64% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Gamida’s stock has surged 33.1% year to date. Gamida topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters. GMDA has a negative four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.60%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.