While we await the next moves from the Russian government regarding its attack on Ukraine and the subsequent reaction of NATO allies including the U.S., we close out a most eventful week in the markets with fresh inflation reads on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Pre-market futures bid up initially on the economic news in aggregate.
Nominal Personal Income for January was unchanged month over month, up from -0.3% expected but down from the previous month’s upwardly revised +0.4%. Nominal Consumer Spending last month was +2.1%, higher than the +1.6% anticipated and a big rung up the ladder from the previous month’s downwardly revised -0.8%. Monthly PCE inflation and core (stripping out food and energy prices) came in at +0.6% and +0.5%, respectively; both were +0.5% a month ago.
The big headlines are in the year-over-year PCE figures: +6.1% on headline and +5.2% on core. Both are hotter than expected — yes, even with all the hot inflation numbers bandying about in recent weeks — and stand at roughly 40-year highs. Real Disposable Income for January fell to -0.5% while Real Consumer Spending swung to a positive +1.5%.
Durable Goods Orders for January doubled expectations to +1.6% in this morning’s print, with December’s revision swinging widely from -0.7% originally reported to +1.2% now. Stripping out transportation costs, we see how valuable they are: +0.7% is the figure without them. Non-defense, ex-auto equipment orders (a proxy for “regular” business spending) more than doubled the upwardly revised +0.4% in December to +0.9% in January.
Shipments grew to +1.9%, also hotter than expected. This comes following a 30-basis-point revision the previous month to +1.6%. In all, prices continue to march northward ahead of a Fed clampdown, which will come in the form of raising interest rates just over two weeks from now. But pre-markets are breathing another sigh of relief this morning that the Ukraine crisis may look to have an easy, concise ending (if Russia and China get their way).
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Economic Data Deluge
While we await the next moves from the Russian government regarding its attack on Ukraine and the subsequent reaction of NATO allies including the U.S., we close out a most eventful week in the markets with fresh inflation reads on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Pre-market futures bid up initially on the economic news in aggregate.
Nominal Personal Income for January was unchanged month over month, up from -0.3% expected but down from the previous month’s upwardly revised +0.4%. Nominal Consumer Spending last month was +2.1%, higher than the +1.6% anticipated and a big rung up the ladder from the previous month’s downwardly revised -0.8%. Monthly PCE inflation and core (stripping out food and energy prices) came in at +0.6% and +0.5%, respectively; both were +0.5% a month ago.
The big headlines are in the year-over-year PCE figures: +6.1% on headline and +5.2% on core. Both are hotter than expected — yes, even with all the hot inflation numbers bandying about in recent weeks — and stand at roughly 40-year highs. Real Disposable Income for January fell to -0.5% while Real Consumer Spending swung to a positive +1.5%.
Durable Goods Orders for January doubled expectations to +1.6% in this morning’s print, with December’s revision swinging widely from -0.7% originally reported to +1.2% now. Stripping out transportation costs, we see how valuable they are: +0.7% is the figure without them. Non-defense, ex-auto equipment orders (a proxy for “regular” business spending) more than doubled the upwardly revised +0.4% in December to +0.9% in January.
Shipments grew to +1.9%, also hotter than expected. This comes following a 30-basis-point revision the previous month to +1.6%. In all, prices continue to march northward ahead of a Fed clampdown, which will come in the form of raising interest rates just over two weeks from now. But pre-markets are breathing another sigh of relief this morning that the Ukraine crisis may look to have an easy, concise ending (if Russia and China get their way).