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Exxon (XOM) Down 0.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Exxon Mobil (XOM - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Exxon due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
ExxonMobil Beats Q4 Earnings Estimates
ExxonMobil’s fourth-quarter 2021 earnings per share of $2.05 — excluding identified items — beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.96 per share and improved from the year-ago profit of 3 cents.
Total revenues of $84,965 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $82,442 million and jumped from the year-earlier figure of $46,540 million.
The strong quarterly results were owing to improved realized oil and natural gas prices as well as higher refining and chemical margins. The results reflect a significant recovery in fuel demand compared to last year, thanks to the rolling out of coronavirus vaccines at a massive scale.
Initiates Share Repurchase
ExxonMobil has initiated share repurchases at the beginning of the March quarter of this year. The buybacks are associated with the repurchase plan announced earlier, representing the program of repurchasing up to $10 billion over the next 12 to 24 months.
Operational Performance
Upstream
The segment of ExxonMobil reported quarterly earnings of $6,085 million against a loss of $18,532 million in the year-ago comparable quarter. This upside was primarily driven by higher commodity prices and oil-equivalent production volumes.
Operations in the United States recorded a profit of $1,768 million against a loss of $16,803 million in the December quarter of 2020. The company reported profits of $4,317 million from non-U.S. operations, which turned around from a loss of $1,729 million in the year-ago quarter.
Production: ExxonMobil’s total production averaged 3,816 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), higher than 3,689 MBoe/d a year ago, reflecting the recovery in fuel demand.
Liquid production increased to 2,385 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d) from 2,325 MBbls/d in the prior-year quarter. The outperformance was owing to higher production, primarily in the United States and Asia. Natural gas production was 8,584 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d), up from 8,185 Mmcf/d a year ago due to higher output from the United States and Asia.
Price Realization: In the United States, ExxonMobil recorded crude price realization of $73.62 per barrel, significantly higher than the year-ago quarter’s $39.06. The same metric for non-U.S. operations rose to $69.97 per barrel from the year-ago $37.86.
Natural gas prices in the United States were recorded at $4.96 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), higher than the year-ago quarter’s $2.20. Also, in the non-U.S. section, the metric improved to $14.32 per Mcf from $4.85 in fourth-quarter 2020.
Downstream
The segment of ExxonMobil recorded a profit of $1,467 million against a loss of $1,211 million a year ago due to improved refining margins from the United States and non-U.S. operations.
ExxonMobil's refinery throughput averaged 4,118 MBbls/d, higher than the year-earlier level of 3,755 MBbls/d. Petroleum product sales rose to 5,391 MBbls/d from 4,833 MBbls/d a year ago.
Chemical
This unit of ExxonMobil recorded a $1,921-million profit, skyrocketing from earnings of $691 million in the year-ago quarter on significantly higher margins from U.S. and non-U.S. operations. Prime product sales rose to 6,701 thousand metric tons (kt) from 6,643 kt a year ago.
Financials
During the quarter under review, ExxonMobil generated cash flow of $19,725 million from operations and asset divestments. The company's capital and exploration spending increased 21.7% year over year to $5,808 million.
At the end of fourth-quarter 2021, ExxonMobil’s total cash and cash equivalents were $6.8 billion and debt amounted to $47.7 billion.
Guidance
ExxonMobil projects capital spending for 2022 in the band of $21 billion to $24 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.
VGM Scores
Currently, Exxon has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Exxon has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
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Exxon (XOM) Down 0.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Exxon Mobil (XOM - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Exxon due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
ExxonMobil Beats Q4 Earnings Estimates
ExxonMobil’s fourth-quarter 2021 earnings per share of $2.05 — excluding identified items — beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.96 per share and improved from the year-ago profit of 3 cents.
Total revenues of $84,965 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $82,442 million and jumped from the year-earlier figure of $46,540 million.
The strong quarterly results were owing to improved realized oil and natural gas prices as well as higher refining and chemical margins. The results reflect a significant recovery in fuel demand compared to last year, thanks to the rolling out of coronavirus vaccines at a massive scale.
Initiates Share Repurchase
ExxonMobil has initiated share repurchases at the beginning of the March quarter of this year. The buybacks are associated with the repurchase plan announced earlier, representing the program of repurchasing up to $10 billion over the next 12 to 24 months.
Operational Performance
Upstream
The segment of ExxonMobil reported quarterly earnings of $6,085 million against a loss of $18,532 million in the year-ago comparable quarter. This upside was primarily driven by higher commodity prices and oil-equivalent production volumes.
Operations in the United States recorded a profit of $1,768 million against a loss of $16,803 million in the December quarter of 2020. The company reported profits of $4,317 million from non-U.S. operations, which turned around from a loss of $1,729 million in the year-ago quarter.
Production: ExxonMobil’s total production averaged 3,816 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), higher than 3,689 MBoe/d a year ago, reflecting the recovery in fuel demand.
Liquid production increased to 2,385 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d) from 2,325 MBbls/d in the prior-year quarter. The outperformance was owing to higher production, primarily in the United States and Asia. Natural gas production was 8,584 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d), up from 8,185 Mmcf/d a year ago due to higher output from the United States and Asia.
Price Realization: In the United States, ExxonMobil recorded crude price realization of $73.62 per barrel, significantly higher than the year-ago quarter’s $39.06. The same metric for non-U.S. operations rose to $69.97 per barrel from the year-ago $37.86.
Natural gas prices in the United States were recorded at $4.96 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), higher than the year-ago quarter’s $2.20. Also, in the non-U.S. section, the metric improved to $14.32 per Mcf from $4.85 in fourth-quarter 2020.
Downstream
The segment of ExxonMobil recorded a profit of $1,467 million against a loss of $1,211 million a year ago due to improved refining margins from the United States and non-U.S. operations.
ExxonMobil's refinery throughput averaged 4,118 MBbls/d, higher than the year-earlier level of 3,755 MBbls/d. Petroleum product sales rose to 5,391 MBbls/d from 4,833 MBbls/d a year ago.
Chemical
This unit of ExxonMobil recorded a $1,921-million profit, skyrocketing from earnings of $691 million in the year-ago quarter on significantly higher margins from U.S. and non-U.S. operations. Prime product sales rose to 6,701 thousand metric tons (kt) from 6,643 kt a year ago.
Financials
During the quarter under review, ExxonMobil generated cash flow of $19,725 million from operations and asset divestments. The company's capital and exploration spending increased 21.7% year over year to $5,808 million.
At the end of fourth-quarter 2021, ExxonMobil’s total cash and cash equivalents were $6.8 billion and debt amounted to $47.7 billion.
Guidance
ExxonMobil projects capital spending for 2022 in the band of $21 billion to $24 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.
VGM Scores
Currently, Exxon has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Exxon has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.