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Why Is Affiliated Managers (AMG) Down 16.4% Since Last Earnings Report?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Affiliated Managers Group (AMG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 16.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Affiliated Managers due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Affiliated Managers Q4 Earnings Beat as Revenues, AUM Rise
Affiliated Managers’ fourth-quarter 2021 economic earnings of $6.10 per share handily surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.81. The bottom line jumped 44.5% year over year.
Results were aided by an improvement in revenues and growth in AUM balance, partly offset by higher expenses. Further, the company had a robust liquidity position.
Economic net income was $255.3 million, up 33.4% from the prior-year quarter.
In 2021, economic earnings per share of $18.28 beat the consensus estimate of $18.11 and grew 36.8% year over year. Economic net income was $779.8 million, up 24.9% from 2020.
Revenues & AUM Improve, Expenses Rise
Total revenues in the reported quarter soared 24.8% year over year to $691.8 million. Also, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $658.67 million.
In 2021, total revenues rose 19% to $2.41 billion. The top line also surpassed the consensus estimate of $2.38 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA was $356.8 million, jumping 39.8% from the year-ago quarter.
Total expenses increased 20.9% year over year to $467.7 million. An increase in all cost components, except for depreciation and other amortization costs, led to the rise.
As of Dec 31, 2021, total AUM was $813.8 billion, up 13.6% year over year. Net client cash outflows in the quarter were $6.2 billion.
Capital & Liquidity Position Decent
As of Dec 31, 2021, Affiliated Managers had $908.5 million in cash and cash equivalents compared with $1.04 billion as of Dec 31, 2020. The company had $2.49 billion of debt, which increased 7.7% from the Dec 31, 2020 level.
Shareholders’ equity as of Dec 31, 2021, was $2.79 billion compared with $2.78 billion as of Dec 31, 2020.
Share Repurchase Update
In the reported quarter, the company repurchased shares worth $120 million.
First-Quarter 2022 Outlook
Management expects adjusted EBITDA of $235-$245 million based on the present AUM levels. The guidance reflects performance fees of up to $10 million and the full impact of the investments in Abacus and Systematic.
Interest expenses are expected to be $29 million, in line with the prior quarter. Controlling interest depreciation is expected to remain at the fourth-quarter 2021 level of $2 million.
The company’s share of reported amortization and impairments is expected to be $30 million, 65.9% lower than the fourth-quarter level of $88 million.
Intangible related deferred taxes are projected to be $15 million, significantly higher than the $1 million reported in the fourth quarter.
Other economic items (excluding any mark-to-market impact) are anticipated to be $1 million.
Adjusted weighted average share count is estimated to be $41 million.
The GAAP tax rate is expected to be 26%. The cash tax rate is expected to be 18%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -6.62% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Affiliated Managers has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Affiliated Managers has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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Why Is Affiliated Managers (AMG) Down 16.4% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Affiliated Managers Group (AMG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 16.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Affiliated Managers due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Affiliated Managers Q4 Earnings Beat as Revenues, AUM Rise
Affiliated Managers’ fourth-quarter 2021 economic earnings of $6.10 per share handily surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.81. The bottom line jumped 44.5% year over year.
Results were aided by an improvement in revenues and growth in AUM balance, partly offset by higher expenses. Further, the company had a robust liquidity position.
Economic net income was $255.3 million, up 33.4% from the prior-year quarter.
In 2021, economic earnings per share of $18.28 beat the consensus estimate of $18.11 and grew 36.8% year over year. Economic net income was $779.8 million, up 24.9% from 2020.
Revenues & AUM Improve, Expenses Rise
Total revenues in the reported quarter soared 24.8% year over year to $691.8 million. Also, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $658.67 million.
In 2021, total revenues rose 19% to $2.41 billion. The top line also surpassed the consensus estimate of $2.38 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA was $356.8 million, jumping 39.8% from the year-ago quarter.
Total expenses increased 20.9% year over year to $467.7 million. An increase in all cost components, except for depreciation and other amortization costs, led to the rise.
As of Dec 31, 2021, total AUM was $813.8 billion, up 13.6% year over year. Net client cash outflows in the quarter were $6.2 billion.
Capital & Liquidity Position Decent
As of Dec 31, 2021, Affiliated Managers had $908.5 million in cash and cash equivalents compared with $1.04 billion as of Dec 31, 2020. The company had $2.49 billion of debt, which increased 7.7% from the Dec 31, 2020 level.
Shareholders’ equity as of Dec 31, 2021, was $2.79 billion compared with $2.78 billion as of Dec 31, 2020.
Share Repurchase Update
In the reported quarter, the company repurchased shares worth $120 million.
First-Quarter 2022 Outlook
Management expects adjusted EBITDA of $235-$245 million based on the present AUM levels. The guidance reflects performance fees of up to $10 million and the full impact of the investments in Abacus and Systematic.
Interest expenses are expected to be $29 million, in line with the prior quarter. Controlling interest depreciation is expected to remain at the fourth-quarter 2021 level of $2 million.
The company’s share of reported amortization and impairments is expected to be $30 million, 65.9% lower than the fourth-quarter level of $88 million.
Intangible related deferred taxes are projected to be $15 million, significantly higher than the $1 million reported in the fourth quarter.
Other economic items (excluding any mark-to-market impact) are anticipated to be $1 million.
Adjusted weighted average share count is estimated to be $41 million.
The GAAP tax rate is expected to be 26%. The cash tax rate is expected to be 18%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -6.62% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Affiliated Managers has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Affiliated Managers has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.