A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Pfizer (PFE Quick QuotePFE - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 5.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Pfizer due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Q4 Earnings Top, Sales Miss, 2022 Sales View Grim

Pfizer reported fourth-quarter 2021 adjusted earnings per share of $1.08, which comprehensively beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents per share. Earnings rose 152% year over year.

Revenues came in at $23.8 billion, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $23.9 billion. Sales rose 105% from the year-ago quarter on a reported basis and 106% on an operational basis mainly driven by the sales of Comirnaty. Direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty were $12.5 billion in the quarter, less than $13.0 billion in the previous quarter. Excluding revenues from Comirnaty and Paxlovid, sales declined 2% operationally, lower than the mid- to high single-digit growth seen in the past three quarters of 2021.

Higher sales of brands like Eliquis and Vyndaqel/Vyndamax globally, Xtandi in the United States and higher biosimilars revenues were offset by weaker sales of Prevnar 13 and Chantix globally, Ibrance in the United States and sterile injectable products.

Fewer selling days in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared with last year’s fourth quarter hurt sales by 4% in the quarter.
International revenues rose 181% to $16.2 billion. U.S. revenues rose 32% to $7.68 billion.

Adjusted selling, informational and administrative (SI&A) expenses rose 10% (operationally) in the quarter to $3.94 billion due to increased product-level spending, including Comirnaty and higher health care reform sales-based fees. Adjusted R&D expenses rose 14% to $3.5 billion due to costs related to the development of COVID-19 treatment programs and other pipeline medicines.

Segment Discussion

Oncology revenues increased 8% (on an operational basis) to $3.24 billion. Vaccine revenues were $13.9 billion compared with $2.0 billion in the year-ago quarter. Internal Medicine declined 3% to $2.24 billion. The Inflammation & Immunology franchise declined 2% to $1.23 billion. The portfolio of Rare Disease rose 12% to $950 million. Hospital sub-segment’s sales rose 1% to $1.88 billion.

Alliance revenues from Bristol-Myers for Eliquis and direct sales rose 19% to $1.5 billion, driven by continued increased adoption in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation as well as oral anticoagulant market share gains.

Ibrance revenues declined 2% year over year to $1.4 billion due to an increase in the proportion of patients using Pfizer’s Patient Assistance Program (provides Ibrance free of charge to certain low-income patients) due to COVID-related economic hardships in the United States.

Global Prevnar 13/Prevenar 13 revenues declined 25% to $1.3 billion. Prevnar 13 sales declined 27% in the United States due to the unfavorable timing of government purchases for the pediatric indication and ongoing prioritization of primary and booster vaccination campaigns for COVID-19. Prevenar 13 revenues declined 24% in international markets.

Xtandi recorded alliance revenues of $306 million in the quarter, up 8% year over year. Inlyta revenues were $260 million in the quarter, up 15%.
Vyndaqel/Vyndamax recorded sales of $561 million in the quarter, up 34% year over year.

Total biosimilar revenues were $680 million, up 30% year over year driven by new oncology biosimilars (Trazimera, Zirabev and Ruxience) as well as continued growth in Retacrit (a biosimilar of Epogen and Procrit) in the United States.

Retacrit recorded $122 million of revenues in the quarter, up 13% year over year. Inflectra/Remsima recorded sales of $171 million globally, down 9% year over year.

Sterile injectables global revenues declined 4% operationally to $1.44 billion.

Xeljanz sales rose 4% to $721 million due to favorable wholesaler inventory buying patterns in the United States, as well as growth in the emerging markets for the rheumatoid arthritis indication.

Paxlovid contributed $76 million to U.S. sales in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Enbrel revenues declined 12% to $297 million due to continued biosimilar competition in key European markets and Japan.

Sutent sales declined 32% to $137 million due to the loss of exclusivity. Chantix revenues were hurt by a pause in global shipments across several markets (due to the presence of a nitrosamine above acceptable limits) and returns of products sold.

2021 Results

Full-year 2021 sales rose 95% to $81.3 billion, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $81.6 billion but falling within the guided range of $81.0 billion to $82.0 billion.

Adjusted earnings for 2021 were $4.42 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.19 per share and came ahead of the guided range of $4.13 to $4.18. Earnings were up 96% year over year.

2022 Guidance

Pfizer issued its financial guidance for 2022.

Revenues are expected in the range of $98.0 billion to $102.0 billion. The mid-point of the revenue guidance indicates growth of 23% from 2021 levels.
The revenue guidance includes approximately $32.0 billion in sales from Comirnaty and $22 billion from Paxlovid. The guidance for Comirnaty and Paxlovid reflects doses/treatment courses to be delivered under supply contracts signed as of late January. The Comirnaty sales guidance was approximately $1 billion higher than the prior guidance provided on Dec 17.

Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $6.35 to $6.55. The mid-point of the earnings guidance indicates a 46% increase over 2021 actual results.

Foreign exchange is expected to hurt revenues and EPS by 1% each in 2022.

Adjusted cost of sales, as a percentage of sales, is expected in the range of 32.2% to 34.2%. Research and development expense is expected in the range of $10.5-11.5 billion. SI&A spending is expected in the range of $12.5-$13.5 billion. The adjusted tax rate is expected to be approximately 16% in 2022. Weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 5.8 billion.

Foreign exchange is expected to hurt 2022 revenues by $1.1 billion and EPS by 6 cents per share.

Excluding COVID-related revenues, total revenues in 2022 are expected to be around $46 billion, representing operational growth of 5%, which is slightly less than Pfizer’s long-term guidance of at least 6% CAGR through 2025.
 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last two month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.