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Why Is UDR (UDR) Up 0.5% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for UDR (UDR - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UDR due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

UDR Q4 FFO In Line With Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y

UDR reported fourth-quarter 2021 FFO as adjusted per share of 54 cents, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The figure is higher than the prior-year quarter’s 49 cents.

There was an increase in revenues from rental income, fueling the quarter’s top-line growth. Decent operating trends, as well as strong pricing power and accretive transactions, were also witnessed.

Quarterly revenues from rental income climbed 15.2% year over year to $347 million. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $340.6 million.

As of Jan 31, 2022, cash revenues collected for the fourth quarter of 2021 were 95.5% of the total billed revenues.

Inside the Headlines

In the reported quarter, same-store revenues (with concessions reported on a cash basis) increased 9% year over year. Same-store expenses were up 3.8%. Consequently, the same-store net operating income, with concessions reported on a cash basis, improved 11.4%.

The residential REIT’s weighted average same-store physical occupancy contracted 40 basis points (bps) sequentially to 97.1%. The fourth-quarter annualized rate of turnover shrunk 660 bps year over year to 34.6%.

UDR continues to implement its Next Generation Operating Platform strategy. This restricted fourth-quarter 2021 same-store controllable expense growth to 2.8% year over year.

Portfolio Activity

The company’s development pipeline aggregated $501.5 million at the end of the reported quarter and was 77% funded. The active pipeline includes five development communities for 1,417 homes.

At the end of the fourth quarter, the company’s Developer Capital Program investment, including accrued return, totaled $345.9 million.

Balance Sheet Activity

As of Dec 31, 2021, UDR had $1.1 billion of liquidity through a combination of cash and undrawn capacity under its credit facilities. The total debt was $5.4 billion as of the same date.

UDR ended the fourth quarter with a weighted average interest rate of 2.80% and weighted average years to maturity of 7.7 years.

Guidance

The company issued the outlook for the first quarter and full-year 2022.

It expects first-quarter 2022 FFO as adjusted per share of 53-55 cents.

For 2022, FFO as adjusted per share is expected to be $2.22-$2.30.

For 2022, the company projects 6.5-8.5% year-over-year growth in same-store cash revenues, whereas same-store NOI growth is estimated to be 8.5-11.5%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, UDR has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, UDR has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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