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Why Is BioMarin (BMRN) Up 4.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN - Free Report) . Shares have added about 4.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is BioMarin due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Q4 Earnings Tops Estimates, Sales Fall Y/Y

BioMarin reported fourth-quarter 2021 adjusted earnings of 3 cents per share which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 2 cents. Earnings declined 85.7% year over year on lower net product revenues and higher operating costs.

Total revenues were $449.8 million for the reported quarter, down 1% from the year-ago period.

Quarterly Details

Product revenues (including Aldurazyme) were $435.9 million for the quarter, almost flat year over year. Product revenues from BioMarin's marketed brands (excluding Aldurazyme) decreased 5% year over year to $414.9 million due to lower Kuvan and Naglazyme revenues. Royalty and other revenues were $14.6 million for the quarter, down 3.2% year over year.

In the PKU franchise, Kuvan revenues declined 23% year over year to $68.5 million due to generic competition, as the drug lost U.S. market exclusivity in late 2020.

Palynziq injection sales grossed $63.8 million for the quarter, up 29% year over year driven by the growing number of U.S. patients who have now achieved maintenance dosing and new patients initiating therapy. The number of U.S. patients on commercial Palynziq therapy rose 15% year over year for 2021. Yet, new patient starts in the United States continued to be hurt by the pandemic impact as PKU clinics were not operating at full capacity.

Vimizim contributed $156.3 million to total revenues, which were up 10% year over year driven by the favorable timing of orders from the Middle East and Latin America. Naglazyme sales decreased 31% year over year to $83.1 million due to the unfavorable timing of orders from the Middle East, Latin America and Europe. Naglazyme and Vimzim revenues vary on a quarterly basis, primarily according to the timing of central government orders from some countries.

Brineura generated sales of $37.4 million in the quarter, up 7% year over year due to continued growth in EMEA and North America. Patients on commercial Brineura therapy increased 18%, which reflects strong underlying demand trends that the product enjoys.

The new drug Voxzogo, generated sales worth $5.8 million in the fourth quarter, with the vast majority of sales coming from Europe. On the conference call, BioMarin management said that Voxzogo’s global launch is on a strong trajectory, with the drug witnessing robust early prescription demand.

Product revenues from Aldurazyme totaled $20.3 million compared with $1.2 million in the year-ago quarter due to favorable timing of product fulfilment to Sanofi’s subsidiary, Genzyme.

BioMarin has a collaboration agreement with Sanofi’s Genzyme for Aldurazyme. Genzyme is BioMarin's sole customer for Aldurazyme, and is responsible for marketing and selling Aldurazyme to third parties.

Full-Year Results

Full-year total revenues declined 1% year over year to $1.85 billion. Adjusted earnings were $1.33 per share for 2021 compared with $1.63 per share in 2020.

2022 Guidance

BioMarin expects to return to double-digit revenue growth and profitability in 2022.

BioMarin expects total revenues in the range of $2.05-$2.15 billion, which indicates growth of 14% at the mid-point. The Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $2.09 billion. BioMarin expects Voxzogo to contribute significantly to 2022 revenues. BioMarin expects Roctavian to be a modest contributor to 2022 revenues.

Vimizim sales are expected in the range of $650-$700 million in 2022. Kuvan sales are anticipated in the range of $225-$250 million. Palynziq sales are expected in the range of $280-$310 million. Naglazyme sales are expected between $400 million and $440 million. Brineura sales are expected within $145-$160 million. Voxzogo sales are expected between $90 million and $115 million.

The company expects adjusted net income in the range of $350-$390 million, indicating more than 50% growth from 2021.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted 47.96% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, BioMarin has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, BioMarin has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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