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ExxonMobil Versus Chevron: Which Oil Major Is a Better Buy?
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ExxonMobil (XOM - Free Report) and Chevron (CVX - Free Report) , with a massive market capitalization of $368 billion and $334 billion, respectively, dominate and define the U.S. energy industry.
Both these companies are engaged in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, refining and marketing of petroleum products, manufacturing of chemicals, and other energy-related businesses.
ExxonMobil and Chevron each carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) – meaning you can have both companies in the portfolio. But this may be a good time to consider which of these to own more of.
Driven by the surge in commodity prices, both XOM and CVX shares have done well during the past year. In the past 12 months, ExxonMobil has been up 59.5%, whereas Chevron has risen by 70.7%. They have trounced the S&P 500 during this period, which has increased by a relatively paltry 10.3%. Even year to date, XOM’s stock is up a lesser 38.6% compared to a 42.6% gain at Chevron. Therefore, based on the stock price, CVX has been a clear winner.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings History
ExxonMobil did better than Chevron in terms of earnings for the most recent quarter. On Feb 1, XOM reported its fourth-quarter 2021 results and beat the Zacks Consensus for the sixth time in a row. Earnings were $2.05 versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.96, for a 4.6% beat. In contrast, CVX’s EPS of $2.56 missed the consensus mark by 17.7% on weaker-than-expected upstream and downstream performances.
Considering a more comprehensive earnings history, XOM went past the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, while Chevron delivered positive surprises in just two quarters.
Production
Over the past few years, Exxon Mobil and Chevron have struggled to replace reserves, as access to new energy resources becomes more difficult. Given their large base, achieving growth in oil and natural gas production has anyway been a challenge for these companies over the last many years.
In terms of overall production growth, Chevron is a clear winner. During 2021, the Irving, TX-based oil and natural gas powerhouse ExxonMobil’s production averaged 3,712 thousand oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBOE/d), 1.3% lower than the year-ago output of 3,761 MBOE/d. For another domestic behemoth Chevron, total volume of crude oil and natural gas was up slightly (0.5%) from the year-earlier level at 3,099 MBOE/d.
As a matter of fact, CVX seems one of the best-placed global integrated oil companies to achieve sustainable production ramp-up. The only energy component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average aims to grow production by around 13% from the 2021 levels to more than 3.5 million barrels a day by 2026 – mostly from the Permian Basin and the Tengiz project in Kazakhstan.
Valuation
On the basis of the trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio — the multiple that most analysts use for the oil and gas firms — ExxonMobil is currently trading at 7.62X, lower than Chevron’s 8.66X but higher than the industry’s 5.12X. While both stocks are overvalued compared to the industry, being a touch more expensive, CVX shares are more prone to fall.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Dividend
Both the diversified oil companies have a long and consistent dividend-paying record. They are the only two energy stocks on the list of Dividend Aristocrats — a group of companies on the S&P 500 Index that have raised their payouts for more than 25 years in a row. Even at the height of the pandemic-led crisis, they trimmed costs elsewhere to preserve their payout.
CVX recently raised its dividend by 6% to $1.42 per share (or $5.68 per share annualized). Investors get a dividend yield of approximately 3.4% from the company. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil boosted its payout to 88 cents per share (or $3.52 per share per year) in October. The stock is currently yielding around 4.2%.
Overall, the dividend yield for ExxonMobil is higher than Chevron and the industry's return of 4%. But on absolute terms, Chevron is better off compared to ExxonMobil.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Net Debt
A sustainable dividend is more than just yields. A company must maintain a strong balance sheet to keep on paying dividends when the going gets tough. In that respect, net debt (or total debt less cash) is of paramount importance. Of the two companies, ExxonMobil has a higher net debt of $36.6 billion, followed by Chevron’s $25.7 billion. In other words, CVX has a healthier balance sheet than XOM.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Capital Expenditure & Cash Flows
At $16.6 million, ExxonMobil’s capital and exploration expenditure for 2021 ran more than 22% lower than in 2020. Meanwhile, Chevron managed to trim its outlay by 13.2% to $11.7 billion.
Looking at the companies’ cash flow from operations, an important gauge of financial health in the oil and gas industry, Chevron delivered an excellent performance last year. The company recorded $29.2 billion in cash flow from operations, surging from $10.6 billion a year ago. ExxonMobil didn’t perform too badly either, raking in $48.1 billion of cash flows in 2021 — the highest since 2012.
Importantly, both ExxonMobil and Chevron were comfortably able to cover the spending on shareholder distributions and capital expenditures with cash flow from operations, which resulted in monumental free cash flows of $36.1 billion and $21.1 billion, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
But going forward, we expect Chevron's cash flow to improve significantly, with huge capital spending requirements mostly behind it following the completion of Australian LNG projects Gorgon and Wheatstone. CVX will hold annual capital spending through 2026 in the range of $15 billion to $17 billion, some 50% lower than peak levels. XOM, on the other hand, is expected to keep investment in the range of $20-$25 billion per annum through 2025.
With Chevron keeping a tighter leash on capital spending, the company wins this round to its larger rival.
Financial Health
Exxon Mobil and Chevron are two of the best-run companies among the global oil majors, consistently producing industry-leading financial returns. Both are still sound financially. In fact, their financial flexibility and strong balance sheets are real assets. Both remain in excellent financial health, with enough in cash on hand and a very manageable debt-to-capitalization. CVX, though, with a lower ratio of 18.3% scores over ExxonMobil’s 19.8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Accretive Acquisitions
Taking advantage of the commodity price collapse, Chevron acquired Noble Energy for a bargain price of $5 billion in 2020. The addition of Noble Energy's assets has expanded Chevron’s footprint in the DJ Basin and the lucrative Permian Basin along with the addition of cash-generating offshore assets in Israel.
Earlier this year, CVX acquired biodiesel producer, Renewable Energy Group for $3.15 billion in an all-cash deal. Chevron’s existing renewable fuel partnership with Bunge, together with Renewable Energy Group’s biodiesel production facilities, will transform the energy behemoth into one of the largest North American renewable fuels producers.
In contrast, ExxonMobil is leaning less heavily on the inorganic channels.
Conclusion
Our comparative analysis shows that ExxonMobil holds an edge over Chevron only when considering valuation, dividend yield, earnings history and cash flows (partly due to its larger size). However, on all other counts, Chevron is clearly a better stock. This is why we recommend that when investing within the Oil/Energy sector, more of CVX is better.
It’s true that ExxonMobil’s business, being larger than Chevron’s, gives it the gargantuan scale to stand up a bit better to industry headwinds. However, the latter’s attractive production growth profile, superior financial metrics and opportunistic investments tilts the balance in its favor.
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ExxonMobil Versus Chevron: Which Oil Major Is a Better Buy?
ExxonMobil (XOM - Free Report) and Chevron (CVX - Free Report) , with a massive market capitalization of $368 billion and $334 billion, respectively, dominate and define the U.S. energy industry.
Both these companies are engaged in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, refining and marketing of petroleum products, manufacturing of chemicals, and other energy-related businesses.
ExxonMobil and Chevron each carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) – meaning you can have both companies in the portfolio. But this may be a good time to consider which of these to own more of.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stock Performance
Driven by the surge in commodity prices, both XOM and CVX shares have done well during the past year. In the past 12 months, ExxonMobil has been up 59.5%, whereas Chevron has risen by 70.7%. They have trounced the S&P 500 during this period, which has increased by a relatively paltry 10.3%. Even year to date, XOM’s stock is up a lesser 38.6% compared to a 42.6% gain at Chevron. Therefore, based on the stock price, CVX has been a clear winner.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings History
ExxonMobil did better than Chevron in terms of earnings for the most recent quarter. On Feb 1, XOM reported its fourth-quarter 2021 results and beat the Zacks Consensus for the sixth time in a row. Earnings were $2.05 versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.96, for a 4.6% beat. In contrast, CVX’s EPS of $2.56 missed the consensus mark by 17.7% on weaker-than-expected upstream and downstream performances.
Considering a more comprehensive earnings history, XOM went past the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, while Chevron delivered positive surprises in just two quarters.
Production
Over the past few years, Exxon Mobil and Chevron have struggled to replace reserves, as access to new energy resources becomes more difficult. Given their large base, achieving growth in oil and natural gas production has anyway been a challenge for these companies over the last many years.
In terms of overall production growth, Chevron is a clear winner. During 2021, the Irving, TX-based oil and natural gas powerhouse ExxonMobil’s production averaged 3,712 thousand oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBOE/d), 1.3% lower than the year-ago output of 3,761 MBOE/d. For another domestic behemoth Chevron, total volume of crude oil and natural gas was up slightly (0.5%) from the year-earlier level at 3,099 MBOE/d.
As a matter of fact, CVX seems one of the best-placed global integrated oil companies to achieve sustainable production ramp-up. The only energy component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average aims to grow production by around 13% from the 2021 levels to more than 3.5 million barrels a day by 2026 – mostly from the Permian Basin and the Tengiz project in Kazakhstan.
Valuation
On the basis of the trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio — the multiple that most analysts use for the oil and gas firms — ExxonMobil is currently trading at 7.62X, lower than Chevron’s 8.66X but higher than the industry’s 5.12X. While both stocks are overvalued compared to the industry, being a touch more expensive, CVX shares are more prone to fall.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Dividend
Both the diversified oil companies have a long and consistent dividend-paying record. They are the only two energy stocks on the list of Dividend Aristocrats — a group of companies on the S&P 500 Index that have raised their payouts for more than 25 years in a row. Even at the height of the pandemic-led crisis, they trimmed costs elsewhere to preserve their payout.
CVX recently raised its dividend by 6% to $1.42 per share (or $5.68 per share annualized). Investors get a dividend yield of approximately 3.4% from the company. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil boosted its payout to 88 cents per share (or $3.52 per share per year) in October. The stock is currently yielding around 4.2%.
Overall, the dividend yield for ExxonMobil is higher than Chevron and the industry's return of 4%. But on absolute terms, Chevron is better off compared to ExxonMobil.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Net Debt
A sustainable dividend is more than just yields. A company must maintain a strong balance sheet to keep on paying dividends when the going gets tough. In that respect, net debt (or total debt less cash) is of paramount importance. Of the two companies, ExxonMobil has a higher net debt of $36.6 billion, followed by Chevron’s $25.7 billion. In other words, CVX has a healthier balance sheet than XOM.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Capital Expenditure & Cash Flows
At $16.6 million, ExxonMobil’s capital and exploration expenditure for 2021 ran more than 22% lower than in 2020. Meanwhile, Chevron managed to trim its outlay by 13.2% to $11.7 billion.
Looking at the companies’ cash flow from operations, an important gauge of financial health in the oil and gas industry, Chevron delivered an excellent performance last year. The company recorded $29.2 billion in cash flow from operations, surging from $10.6 billion a year ago. ExxonMobil didn’t perform too badly either, raking in $48.1 billion of cash flows in 2021 — the highest since 2012.
Importantly, both ExxonMobil and Chevron were comfortably able to cover the spending on shareholder distributions and capital expenditures with cash flow from operations, which resulted in monumental free cash flows of $36.1 billion and $21.1 billion, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
But going forward, we expect Chevron's cash flow to improve significantly, with huge capital spending requirements mostly behind it following the completion of Australian LNG projects Gorgon and Wheatstone. CVX will hold annual capital spending through 2026 in the range of $15 billion to $17 billion, some 50% lower than peak levels. XOM, on the other hand, is expected to keep investment in the range of $20-$25 billion per annum through 2025.
With Chevron keeping a tighter leash on capital spending, the company wins this round to its larger rival.
Financial Health
Exxon Mobil and Chevron are two of the best-run companies among the global oil majors, consistently producing industry-leading financial returns. Both are still sound financially. In fact, their financial flexibility and strong balance sheets are real assets. Both remain in excellent financial health, with enough in cash on hand and a very manageable debt-to-capitalization. CVX, though, with a lower ratio of 18.3% scores over ExxonMobil’s 19.8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Accretive Acquisitions
Taking advantage of the commodity price collapse, Chevron acquired Noble Energy for a bargain price of $5 billion in 2020. The addition of Noble Energy's assets has expanded Chevron’s footprint in the DJ Basin and the lucrative Permian Basin along with the addition of cash-generating offshore assets in Israel.
Earlier this year, CVX acquired biodiesel producer, Renewable Energy Group for $3.15 billion in an all-cash deal. Chevron’s existing renewable fuel partnership with Bunge, together with Renewable Energy Group’s biodiesel production facilities, will transform the energy behemoth into one of the largest North American renewable fuels producers.
In contrast, ExxonMobil is leaning less heavily on the inorganic channels.
Conclusion
Our comparative analysis shows that ExxonMobil holds an edge over Chevron only when considering valuation, dividend yield, earnings history and cash flows (partly due to its larger size). However, on all other counts, Chevron is clearly a better stock. This is why we recommend that when investing within the Oil/Energy sector, more of CVX is better.
It’s true that ExxonMobil’s business, being larger than Chevron’s, gives it the gargantuan scale to stand up a bit better to industry headwinds. However, the latter’s attractive production growth profile, superior financial metrics and opportunistic investments tilts the balance in its favor.