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Molina Healthcare (MOH) to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH - Free Report) is set to report first-quarter 2022 results on Apr 27, after the closing bell.

The managed care organization reported adjusted earnings of $2.88 per share for the fourth quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.82 due to increased membership and premiums. Lower impact from COVID also aided the results.

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the first-quarter earnings announcement.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share of $4.74 suggests a 6.8% increase from the prior-year figure of $4.44. No estimate revision has been witnessed by the company in the past week. The consensus estimate for first-quarter revenues of $7.5 billion indicates a 15.6% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

Molina Healthcare beat the consensus estimate for earnings in three of the prior four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 5%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Molina Healthcare, Inc Price and EPS Surprise

Molina Healthcare, Inc Price and EPS Surprise

Molina Healthcare, Inc price-eps-surprise | Molina Healthcare, Inc Quote

Factors to Note

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium revenues indicates a 14.7% year-over-year increase. Further, the consensus estimate for investment income and other revenues indicates 12.4% year-over-year growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for membership in the Medicare program signals an 18.3% jump from the year-ago period. The potential increase in these metrics is expected to have positioned the company to register year-over-year growth in the bottom line.

The consensus estimate for total ending membership indicates a 7.8% increase from the year-ago period. However, Marketplaces ending membership is likely to have declined in the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same indicates a 45.5% year-over-year decline, making an earnings beat uncertain. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium tax predicts an 11.2% year-over-year rise.

The consenus estimate for total Medical Care Ratio for the first quarter is pegged at 88%, indicating an increase from 87% a year ago. The higher ratio indicates that a smaller amount of premium will be left over after paying insurance claims.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Molina Healthcare this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -2.78%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $4.61 per share, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.74.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Molina Healthcare currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Molina Healthcare, here are some companies from the Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

AngionBiomedica Corp. (ANGN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +15.71% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AngionBiomedica’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter suggests an improvement of 53.2% year over year.

Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMLX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.73% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Amylyx Pharmaceuticals’ earnings per share for the to-be-reported quarter has improved 29.9% in the past 30 days.

Aligos Therapeutics, Inc. (ALGS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.55% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aligos Therapeutics’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter suggests an improvement of 10.8% year over year.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.