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Will Higher Prices Benefit Nutrien (NTR) in Q1 Earnings?

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Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) is scheduled to come up with first-quarter 2022 results after the bell on May 2. The company’s profitability is expected to have boosted by higher selling prices in the March quarter. Prices are likely to have been driven by a tight global supply-demand balance.

Higher Prices to Boost Margins

Higher prices aided by strong demand and tight supply are likely to have driven the fertilizer maker’s sales and margins in the first quarter.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter average selling price per ton for the company’s Potash (North America) business stands at $631, suggesting a 179% year-over-year increase. The same for Potash Offshore is pinned at $489, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 195%.

The consensus estimate for Phosphate (Fertilizer) stands at $810, which reflects a year-over-year increase of around 78.8%. The same for Phosphate (industrial and feed) stands at $850, indicating a 44.3% year-over-year rise.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average selling price per ton for Nitrogen (Ammonia) is pegged at $953, reflecting a 229.1% year over year increase. The same for Nitrogen (Urea) is pinned at $793, suggesting a 141% year-over-year rise. The consensus estimate for Nitrogen (solutions, nitrates and sulfates) stands at $404, indicating a 164% year-over-year rise.

Potash prices have strengthened on the back of robust global demand and tight supply. Tight inventory along with healthy demand is also driving phosphate prices globally. Fertilizer prices are also shooting higher amid supply concerns triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Lower global supply availability stemming from reduced operating rates, strong demand and a spike in energy prices are likely to have also boosted nitrogen prices.  Supply constraints are driving ammonia and nitrate prices. As such, higher prices are likely to have boosted Nutrien’s top and bottom lines in the first quarter.

 

Nutrien Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Nutrien Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Nutrien Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Nutrien Ltd. Quote

 

Overall Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter consolidated revenues for Nutrien is currently pegged at $7,767 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 66.7%. The consensus estimate for earnings is $2.59, which indicates a substantial rise from the prior-year reported number.

Zacks Model

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Nutrien this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Nutrien is +0.55%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Nutrien currently carries a Zacks Rank #1.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on May 4, has an Earnings ESP of +4.55% and carries a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Allegheny’s first-quarter earnings has been revised 4.8% upward over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ATI’s earnings for the quarter is currently pegged at 22 cents.

Westlake Corporation (WLK - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on May 3, has an Earnings ESP of +17.30% and carries a Zacks Rank #2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Westlake's first-quarter earnings has been revised 22.1% upward over the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for WLK’s earnings for the quarter is currently pegged at $4.53.

The Chemours Company (CC - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on May 2, has an Earnings ESP of +3.83% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chemours’ first-quarter earnings has been revised 2.2% upward in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for CC’s earnings for the quarter is currently pegged at 92 cents.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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