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First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) Soars to 52-Week High, Time to Cash Out?

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Have you been paying attention to shares of First Guaranty Bancshares (FGBI - Free Report) ? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 6.8% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $25.8 in the previous session. First Guaranty Bancshares has gained 25.5% since the start of the year compared to the -9.5% move for the Zacks Finance sector and the -8% return for the Zacks Banks - Southeast industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on April 28, 2022, First Guaranty Bancshares reported EPS of $0.65 versus consensus estimate of $0.62.

For the current fiscal year, First Guaranty Bancshares is expected to post earnings of $2.59 per share on $121.23 million in revenues. This represents a 7.02% change in EPS on a 20.77% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $2.84 per share on $135.6 million in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 9.65% and 11.85%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

First Guaranty Bancshares may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. Investors should consider the style scores a valuable tool that can help you to pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

First Guaranty Bancshares has a Value Score of B. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are C and D, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 9.9X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is not in-line with the peer industry average of 11X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 8.6X versus its peer group's average of 8.9X. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, First Guaranty Bancshares currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if First Guaranty Bancshares passes the test. Thus, it seems as though First Guaranty Bancshares shares could have potential in the weeks and months to come.

How Does FGBI Stack Up to the Competition?

Shares of FGBI have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is First BanCorp. (FBP - Free Report) . FBP has a Zacks Rank of # 2 (Buy) and a Value Score of A, a Growth Score of C, and a Momentum Score of C.

Earnings were strong last quarter. First BanCorp. beat our consensus estimate by 28.13%, and for the current fiscal year, FBP is expected to post earnings of $1.49 per share on revenue of $894.05 million.

Shares of First BanCorp. have gained 6.8% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 9.35X and a P/CF of 8.47X.

The Banks - Southeast industry is in the top 9% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for FGBI and FBP, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.


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