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Why Is Oshkosh (OSK) Down 1.2% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Oshkosh (OSK - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Oshkosh due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Oshkosh Reports Lower Y/Y Q1 Earnings 

Oshkosh reported adjusted earnings of 24 cents per share in the first quarter of 2022. The metric topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 17 cents. Higher-than-expected operating income from the Fire & Emergency and Commercial segments led to the outperformance. However, the bottom line decreased from $1.13 recorded in the year-ago quarter.

In the quarter under review, consolidated net sales rose 3% year over year to $1,945.7 million. The top line outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,874.5 million.

Segmental Details

During the quarter under discussion, net sales in Access Equipment surged around 19.6% year over year to $883.1 million on strong market demand in North America. The figure, however, missed the consensus metric of $888 million. Operating income plunged 90.7% to $7.5 million (accounting for 0.8% of sales) and missed the consensus mark of $22.93 million. The downside was due to higher material & logistics and manufacturing costs.

The Defense segment’s net sales fell 12.9% year over year to $535.6 million, led by lower volumes of Medium and Heavy Tactical Vehicle programs. But, sales in this segment beat the consensus mark of $529 million. The operating income came down 45.4% from the prior-year figure to $19.4 million (3.6% of sales) and lagged the consensus metric of $21.64 million.

Net sales in the Fire & Emergency segment totaled $287.9 million, decreasing 7.9% year over year. Lower aircraft rescue and firefighting vehicle sales adversely impacted the top line. The figure crossed the consensus mark of $265 million. The segment’s operating income fell 52.7% year over year to $22.4 million (7.8% of sales) amid higher material and logistics costs, parts scarcity-induced higher manufacturing costs and lower sales volume. Nevertheless, the figure surpassed the consensus mark of $18.33 million.

Net sales in the Commercial segment increased 5% from the year-ago figure to $241.4 on a higher percentage of sales, including a third-party chassis and higher pricing to address higher input costs. The figure also beat the consensus mark of $236 million. The segment reported an operating income of $14.3 million (5.9% of sales), decreasing 23.9% chiefly due to higher material, manufacturing costs and lower sales. The figure outpaced the consensus mark of $4.52 million.

Financials, Dividend & Buyback

Oshkosh had cash and cash equivalents of $944.5 million on Mar 31, 2022, falling from $995.7 million as of Mar 31, 2021. The company recorded a long-term debt of $594.4 million as of Mar 31, 2022, compared with $819 million recorded as of Dec 31, 2021.

Oshkosh declared a quarterly cash dividend of 37 cents per share, payable May 27, 2022, to shareholders on record as of May 13, 2022.

OSK repurchased nearly 751.31 million shares of common stock for $85 million during the reported quarter.

Outlook

The company modified its guidance for fiscal 2022. The company has now set its earnings per share expectations in the range of $5-$6, down from the previous range of $5.75-$6.75. It lowered its estimated consolidated operating income to the range of $475-$560 million from its previous projection of $545-$625 million.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -30.65% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Oshkosh has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Oshkosh has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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