Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Why Is Methanex (MEOH) Down 3.2% Since Last Earnings Report?

Read MoreHide Full Article

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Methanex (MEOH - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 3.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Methanex due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Methanex’s  Earnings Beat, Revenues Miss Estimates in Q1

Methanex logged a profit (attributable to shareholders) of $119 million or $1.60 per share in first-quarter 2022 versus $105 million or $1.19 per share in the year-ago quarter.

Adjusted earnings per share (barring one-time items) in the reported quarter were $2.16, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09.

Revenues rose around 15.7% year over year to $1,176 million in the quarter. However, the top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,178.7 million.

Adjusted EBITDA in the reported quarter surged 39.3% year over year to $337 million.

Operational Highlights

Production in the quarter totaled 1,789,000 tons, up around 12.1% year over year. Total sales volume in the first quarter totaled 2,758,000 tons, lower than the prior-year quarter’s figure of 2,793,000 tons.

The average realized price for methanol was $425 per ton in the quarter, up roughly 17.1% from $363 per ton in the prior-year quarter. In the first quarter, the company enjoyed strong industry conditions.

Methanex’s impressive financial performance enabled it to return excess cash to shareholders through its raised dividend and increased share repurchase program.

Financials

Cash and cash equivalents increased around 31.4% year-over-year to $1,125 million at the end of the first quarter. The long-term debt at the end of the quarter was $2,144 million, down around 7% year over year.

Cash flow from operating activities was $325 million, up around 94.6% year over year. The company paid out dividends worth $9 million during the reported quarter.

Outlook

Methanex forecasts production for 2022 to be roughly 1.5 million tons in New Zealand. It expects adequate gas to operate both Chile plants through April 2022. The company projects production in 2022 to be roughly 1 million tons in Chile. The construction of the Geismar 3 project is progressing according to plan and is on track to be completed on-time and within budget by late 2023 or early 2024.

 

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Methanex has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Methanex has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Methanex belongs to the Zacks Chemical - Diversified industry. Another stock from the same industry, Dow Inc. (DOW - Free Report) , has gained 0% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2022.

Dow Inc. reported revenues of $15.26 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +28.5%. EPS of $2.34 for the same period compares with $1.36 a year ago.

Dow Inc. is expected to post earnings of $2.14 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -21.3%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.5%.

Dow Inc. has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.


In-Depth Zacks Research for the Tickers Above


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


Dow Inc. (DOW) - free report >>

Methanex Corporation (MEOH) - free report >>

Published in