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Why Is Lyft (LYFT) Down 20.9% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Lyft (LYFT - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 20.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Lyft due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Lyft's Q1 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates

Lyft’s first-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings of 7 cents per share compared favorably with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 7 cents. In the year-ago period, the company had incurred a loss due to significant decline in ride volumes as a result of coronavirus-led woes.

Total revenues of $876 million outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $854 million. The top line jumped 44% year over year owing to 31.9% increase in Active Riders, which totaled 17.80 million in the reported quarter.  This San-Francisco-based company’s Revenue per Active Rider increased 9% year over year to $49.18.

Lyft’s first-quarter performance reflects softness on a sequential basis due to Omicron-induced drop in ride trips in January. Total revenues decreased 10% quarter over quarter due to a 5% decline in Active Riders.

Lyft’s adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $54.8 million against adjusted EBITDA loss of $73 million in the year-ago period. However, the same declined $19.9 million sequentially. This marks the company’s fourth straight quarter of generating adjusted EBITDA profits. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the first quarter was 6.3% against adjusted EBITDA loss margin of 12% in the year-ago period. In the fourth quarter of 2021, adjusted EBITDA margin was 7.7%.

Total costs and expenses climbed 4.8% year over year to $1.07 billion in the quarter. Contribution improved 49% year over year to $502.5 million. Contribution margin increased to 57.4% from 55.4% in the year-ago period.  Lyft, carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), exited the first quarter with unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $2.2 billion compared with $2.3 billion at the end of 2021.

Q2 Guidance

LYFT expects second-quarter revenues of $950 million-$1 billion, which indicates a sequential rise of 9-14%. Due to increased investments in drivers and marketing, the company estimates adjusted EBITDA to be only $10 million-$20 million in the second quarter. Contribution margin is expected to be approximately 56% in the second quarter.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -40.72% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Lyft has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Lyft has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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