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Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Up 7.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 7.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marathon Petroleum due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Marathon Petroleum Posts Better-Than-Expected Q1 Earnings

Independent oil refiner and marketer Marathon Petroleum reported earnings per share of $1.49, which comfortably beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.12 and compared with a loss of 37 cents per share in the year-ago period. The company’s bottom line was favorably impacted by the stronger-than-expected performance of both segments. Precisely, operating income from the Refining & Marketing and the Midstream units totaled $768 million and $1.1 billion, respectively, ahead of their Zacks Consensus Estimates by 43.2% and 1.6%.

Marathon Petroleum reported revenues of $38.4 billion that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $27.9 billion and improved 67.7% year over year.
 
The company repurchased shares worth $2.5 billion during the February-April period and has now completed around 80% of its target to buy back $10 billion in common stock. This was after Marathon Petroleum concluded the sale of its Speedway business, comprising approximately 3,900 c-stores in 35 states to Japan-based retail group Seven &i Holdings — the owner of the 7-Eleven convenience store chain — for $21 billion.

Inside MPC’s Segments

Refining & Marketing: The Refining & Marketing segment reported operating income of $768 million, turning around from the year-ago loss of $598 million. The improvement primarily reflects higher year-over-year margins and throughputs.

Specifically, refining margin of $15.31 per barrel improved significantly from $10.16 a year ago. Total refined product sales volumes were 3,293 thousand barrels per day (mbpd), up from the 3,067 mbpd in the year-ago quarter. Throughput rose from 2,565 mbpd in the year-ago quarter to 2,833 mbpd but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 2,846 mbpd. Capacity utilization during the quarter was up from last year’s 83% to 91%.

Midstream: This unit mainly reflects Marathon Petroleum’s general partner and majority limited partner interests in MPLX LP — a publicly traded master limited partnerships that own, operate, develop and acquire pipelines and other midstream assets.

Segment profitability was $1.1 billion, 10.3% higher than the first quarter of 2021. Earnings were supported by stable, fee-based revenues from MPLX’s wide range of midstream energy services.

Costs, Capex & Balance Sheet

Marathon Petroleum reported expenses of $36.7 billion in first-quarter 2022, rising 61.8% from the year-ago quarter.

In the reported quarter, Marathon Petroleum spent $573 million on capital programs (43% on Refining & Marketing and 49% on the Midstream segment) compared to $410 million in the year-ago period. As of Mar 31, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $7.1 billion and total debt, including that of MPLX, of $26.7 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 46.8%.




 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted 44.65% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Marathon Petroleum has a great Growth Score of A, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Marathon Petroleum has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Marathon Petroleum is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry. Over the past month, Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 7.3%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2022 more than a month ago.

Phillips 66 reported revenues of $36.72 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +67.5%. EPS of $1.32 for the same period compares with -$1.16 a year ago.

Phillips 66 is expected to post earnings of $3.56 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +381.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +10.9%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Phillips 66. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.


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