A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Moderna (MRNA Quick QuoteMRNA - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Moderna due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Moderna Q1 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

Moderna reported earnings of $8.58 per share for the first quarter of 2022, comfortably beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.18. The company had reported earnings of $2.84 per share in the year-ago quarter. The significant improvement in the bottom line was driven by strong year-over-year growth in revenues.

Revenues in the quarter were $6.1 billion, significantly beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.50 billion. In the year-ago quarter, revenues were $1.93 billion. The significant increase in revenues was driven by the strong sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, and its booster doses.

Quarter in Details

Product sales, entirely from the COVID-19 vaccine, were $5.93 billion during the quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2021, product sales were $6.94 billion. The company had recorded product sales of $1.73 billion in the year-ago period.

Grant revenues were $126 million compared with $194 million in the year-ago quarter. Collaboration revenues were $15 million compared with $10 million in the year-ago quarter.

Selling, general and administrative expenses were $268 million, compared with $77 million in the year-ago quarter. The significant increase was primarily due to an endowment to the Moderna Charitable Foundation along with an increase in certain commercialization costs.

Research & development expenses were $554 million, up 38.2% from the year-ago period. The significant increase was primarily attributable to higher clinical costs, personnel-related cost, technology and facility-related costs, and a few others.

The company ended the quarter with $19.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, compared with $17.6 billion as of Dec 31, 2021.

2022 Guidance

Moderna stated that it has advance purchase agreements with different countries for Spikevax and its booster doses worth approximately $21 billion. The company believes that sales will be slightly higher in the second half of 2022 compared with the first half.

The company expects R&D and SG&A expenses to be approximately $4 billion in 2022. It expects capital expenditure to be in the range of $600 million to $800 million.

In February 2022, Moderna authorized a share repurchase program of $3 billion. It completed its previous share repurchase program, initiated during the third quarter of 2021, of $1 billion in January.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -22.42% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Moderna has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Moderna has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.