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Why Is Best Buy (BBY) Down 12.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Best Buy (BBY - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 12.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Best Buy due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Best Buy's Q1 Earnings Miss, Comparable Sales Fall 8%

Best Buy posted mixed results for first-quarter fiscal 2023 results, wherein the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate but the bottom line missed the same. Both sales and earnings decreased year over year.

Q1 Details

Best Buy’s adjusted earnings of $1.57 per share lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.60. The bottom line decreased 29.6% from the year-ago period’s reading.

Enterprise revenues dipped 3.4% year over year to $10,647 million but surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10,432 million. Enterprise comparable sales dropped 8% against 37.2% growth seen in the year-ago quarter.

Gross profit declined 13.3% to $2,353 million, while gross margin contracted 120 basis points to 22.1%. Operating income came in at $462 million, down significantly from $769 million recorded in the year-ago quarter. Again, adjusted operating margin shrank 230 bps to 4.3%.

We note that adjusted SG&A expenses rose 0.2% to $1,890 million, while as a percentage of revenues, the same dipped 4.9% to 17.8%.

Segment Details

Domestic segment revenues fell 8.7% to $9,894 million. This year-over-year decline was mainly induced by a comparable sales decrease of 8.5%. From a merchandising perspective, comparable sales decreased in almost all categories.

Domestic online revenues of $3.06 billion declined 14.9% year over year on a comparable basis. As a percentage of total Domestic revenues, online revenues were 30.9% compared with 33.2% last year.

Segment adjusted gross profit rate decreased 140 basis points to 21.9% due to lower services margin rates with pressures related to Best Buy’s Totaltech membership offering, reduced product margin rates and increased supply-chain costs. This was partly offset by increased profit-sharing revenues from its private label and co-branded credit card arrangement.

Moving on to the International segment, revenues fell 5.4% to $753 million, mainly due to the exit of operations in Mexico and a comparable sales decline of 1.4% in Canada. The segment’s adjusted gross profit rate expanded 130 basis points to 24.3%, boosted by a higher percentage of revenues from the increased margin services category in Canada.

Other Details

Best Buy ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $640 million, long-term debt of $1,170 million and a total equity of $2,767 million.

During the quarter, BBY returned about $654 million to its shareholders via share repurchases of $455 million and dividends worth $199 million. Management authorized the payment of a quarterly cash dividend of 88 cents per share. The dividend is payable Jul 5, 2022, to its shareholders of record as of Jun 14, 2022.

For fiscal 2023, management anticipates share buybacks of $1.5 billion.

Guidance

Management updated outlook for fiscal 2023. It envisions fiscal 2023 enterprise revenues between $48.3 billion and $49.9 billion compared with the prior view of $49.3-$50.8 billion. Comparable sales are expected to deteriorate 3-6% from the previously guided range of a decline of 1-4%.

Best Buy now envisions adjusted earnings per share in the band of $8.40-$9 compared with the earlier projection of $8.85-$9.15. BBY delivered earnings of $10.01 last fiscal year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -8.67% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Best Buy has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Best Buy has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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