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Things to Note as General Mills (GIS) Readies for Q4 Earnings

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General Mills, Inc. (GIS - Free Report) is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 earnings on Jun 29. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $4,797 million, suggesting a rise of 6% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at $1.01 per share, indicating nearly 11% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. This manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer food products has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.2%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 9.1%.

General Mills, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

General Mills, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

General Mills, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | General Mills, Inc. Quote

Things to Consider

General Mills has been benefiting from its Accelerate strategy, which aids the company in making the choices of how to win and where to play to boost profitability while enhancing shareholder returns. Under how to win, GIS is focused on four pillars that are designed to provide a competitive advantage. These include brand building, undertaking innovations, unleashing scale and maintaining business strength. The ‘where to play’ principle is outlined to enhance the company’s capabilities to generate profitability through geographic as well as product prioritization along with portfolio restructuring.

Strength in the Pet segment has been a driver. Higher pet population and more humanization and premiumization of pet food amid the pandemic are tailwinds for the company’s pet food category.

However, elevated cost headwinds are a concern. General Mills’ adjusted gross margin was affected by input cost inflation, supply-chain deleverage and escalated other costs of goods sold in the last reported quarter. For fiscal 2022, management expects input cost inflation of 8 to 9% along with major costs associated with supply-chain disruptions. However, the company’s saving and revenue management efforts have been upsides.

On its third-quarter fiscal 2022 earnings call, management raised the full-year guidance due to the year-to-date performance and the projections of solid top and bottom-line growth in the fiscal fourth quarter. On its last earnings call, management expected at-home food demand to stay above pre-pandemic levels as people spend more time working from home. For fiscal 2022, the organic net sales growth is expected to be roughly 5%, reflecting a projection of a sequential improvement in the organic net price realization and mix.  The adjusted operating profit at constant currency (cc) is now anticipated between a 2% decline and flat year over year, indicating a raised organic net sales view. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth at cc is envisioned to be flat to up 2%

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for General Mills this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

General Mills currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of -0.57%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat earnings this season:

Archer Daniels (ADM - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.80% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company is expected to register bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly EPS of $1.69 suggests an increase of 27.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Archer Daniels’ top line is anticipated to rise year over year. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $25.2 billion, indicating an increase of 9.8% from the year-ago quarter’s levels. ADM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.3%, on average.

Kraft Heinz (KHC - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.12% and a Zacks Rank of 3. Kraft Heinz is anticipated to register a top-line decrease from the last fiscal year’s quarterly reading when it reports second-quarter 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KHC’s revenues is pegged at $6.4 billion, indicating a drop of 3.3% from the figure reported in the prior fiscal year’s quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kraft Heinz’s quarterly earnings is pegged at 68 cents per share, suggesting a decline of 12.8% from the last fiscal year’s quarterly number. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.4%, on average.

e.l.f. Beauty (ELF - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.05% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register top-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2023 earnings. The consensus mark for e.l.f. Beauty’s quarterly revenues is pegged at around $109 million, which suggests 12.2% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus mark for quarterly earnings is pegged at 23 cents per share. The consensus estimate for ELF suggests a decline of 14.8% from the year-ago quarter’s levels. e.l.f. Beauty has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 82.8%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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