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What to Expect Ahead of Lincoln National's (LNC) Q2 Earnings?

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Lincoln National Corporation (LNC - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2022 results on Aug 3, after the closing bell.

Q2 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lincoln National’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.35 per share, which indicates a decline of 25.9% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for revenues stands at $4.5 billion, suggesting a decrease of 9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Earnings Surprise History

Lincoln National’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average negative surprise being 10.35%. This is depicted in the chart below:

Factors to Note

Revenues of Lincoln National are likely to reflect the negative impacts of lower fee income and reduced net investment income in the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fee income is pegged at $1.6 billion, which indicates a 7.1% decline from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for second-quarter net investment income stands at $1.3 billion, suggesting a 15% fall from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Lincoln National’s second-quarter top-line performance is likely to have benefited from improved premiums stemming from rate increases, new sales growth, better persistency and an increase in employment in the quarter under review. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LNC’s insurance premiums is pegged at $1.4 billion, which suggests growth of 2.1% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Softer segmental contributions from Annuities, Retirement Plan Services and Life Insurance units might have dampened revenue growth of Lincoln National in the to-be-reported quarter. A decline in indexed variable annuity sales is likely to have hurt revenues of the Annuities segment. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of the segment stands at $1.1 billion, indicating a decrease of 11.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

While reduced variable investment income is likely to have hampered the performance of the Retirement Plan Services segment in the second quarter, less favorable returns from LNC’s alternative investment portfolio might have weighed on the Life Insurance business. The consensus mark for revenues from Retirement Plan Services and Life Insurance segments are pegged at $303 million and $1.8 billion, indicating declines of 9% and 10.6%, respectively, from their prior-year quarters’ reported figures.

Sound contribution from the Group Protection segment, which might have been driven by a moderation of pandemic-related headwinds and better underlying disability results, is likely to have favored the quarterly results of Lincoln National. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues of the segment stands at $1.3 billion, implying an improvement of 5.2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Though margins of Lincoln National are likely to have benefited from the Spark initiative, continued investments with an aim to upgrade digital capabilities, bring about automation in processes and pave the way for organization efficiencies are likely to have resulted in escalating costs for the life insurer.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lincoln National this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Lincoln National has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: LNC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Lincoln National, here are some companies from the Finance space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:

Hersha Hospitality Trust has an Earnings ESP of +18.85% and a Zacks Rank #2, currently. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hersha Hospitality Trust’s second-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at $1.18 per share, which compares favorably against the prior-year quarter’s loss of 8 cents.

HT beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.56% and a Zacks Rank #2, currently. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Oaktree Specialty Lending’s second-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at 72 cents per share, which indicates a 12.5% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

OCSL beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Axos Financial, Inc. (AX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.43% and a Zacks Rank #3, currently. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Axos Financial’s second-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at $4.04 per share, which indicates a 9.8% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

AX beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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