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Ulta Beauty Q2 Preview: Can Shares Stay Hot?

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The Zacks Retail and Wholesale Sector has struggled year-to-date amid a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, down nearly 20% and underperforming the general market by a wide margin. However, the sector has posted a 4% return over the last month, undoubtedly a positive.

A widely-popular name in the sector, Ulta Beauty (ULTA - Free Report) , is slated to unveil Q2 results on Thursday, August 25th, after market close.

Ulta Beauty is a leading beauty retailer in the United States, with a vast product catalog that includes cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, hair care, bath and body products, and salon styling tools.

How does everything stack up heading into the print? Let’s take a closer look.

Share Performance & Valuation

Year-to-date, Ulta Beauty shares have primarily traded sideways, penciling in a flat YTD return that still easily outperforms the S&P 500.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

However, shares have really taken off over the last three months, tacking on an impressive 17% in value and crushing the S&P 500’s return of 4.6%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The favorable price action of ULTA shares tells us that buyers have defended the stock all year long, something we can’t say for most stocks throughout 2022.

In addition, ULTA shares trade at sound valuation levels, as displayed by its Style Score of a B for Value. The company’s 19.9X forward earnings multiple resides well beneath its five-year median of 25.3X and represents a steep 23% discount relative to its Zacks Sector.

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Quarterly Estimates

Analysts have been very bullish in their earnings outlook for the quarter over the last 60 days, with five positive estimate revisions hitting the tape paired with a 100% revision agreement. The Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate resides at $4.93, reflecting a solid 8.1% Y/Y uptick in quarterly earnings.

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

The growth doesn’t stop there – ULTA is forecasted to have generated $2.2 billion in revenue throughout the quarter, penciling in a remarkable 12% uptick from year-ago quarterly sales of $1.9 billion.

Quarterly Performance & Market Reactions

Ulta Beauty has consistently reported strong bottom-line results, exceeding the Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate in nine of its previous ten quarters. Just in its latest print, the company recorded a sizable 42% bottom-line beat.

Top-line results have also been stellar – ULTA has chained together eight consecutive revenue beats. Below is a chart illustrating the company’s revenue on a quarterly basis.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

In addition, the market has reacted favorably in response to the company’s quarterly prints as of late, with shares moving upwards following four of its previous five prints.

Putting Everything Together

Ulta Beauty shares have posted market-beating returns year-to-date and over the last three months, signaling that buyers have been out in full force.

Furthermore, the company’s shares trade at solid valuation multiples, well below their five-year median and Zacks Sector average.

Analysts have been bullish in their quarterly outlook, and estimates reflect solid growth within the top and bottom-lines.

The company has also consistently exceeded quarterly estimates, and the market has liked what it’s seen from ULTA as of late.

Heading into the print, Ulta Beauty (ULTA - Free Report) carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) with an Earnings ESP Score of 2.9%.


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