We are back-loaded with economic data this week, including two big reports out this morning prior to the opening bell: Weekly Jobless Claims, a new PCE Price Index and the first revision to Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Overall, results are good, and have taken pre-market futures from slightly in the green to another slight step more into the green.
Initial Jobless Claims came in for last week at 243K, the fourth consecutive week this figure has been north of 240K (and well off the 181K we were reporting just a few months ago), but this is down from the 254K analysts were expecting. The previous week’s 245K was downwardly revised by 5000 claims, also relative good news for the labor market. We’re also well off the near-term highs of 261K from mid-July, and have a 4-week average of 247K.
Continuing Claims were also better than expected: 1.415 million longer-term jobless claims was a nice step down from the 1.434 million reported the previous week. Also, as you likely know already, continuing claims are reported a week in arrears from new claims; perhaps this means we’ll see an even lower number this time next week.
The first revision to Q2 GDP came down (up?) 30 basis points, from -0.9% originally reported to -0.6% this morning. This is slightly worse than the expected -0.5% for the revision, and clearly we’ve still got two-straight months of negative GDP growth, which indicates a recession (though there are still many analysts who would put an asterisk by this), but it’s nevertheless more economic data headed in the right direction, if not quite “there” yet.
The PCE Price Index for Q2 came in at +7.1%, just as we saw in the previous report. Similarly, on core we see this number down to +4.4%, also in-line from the prior read. Real GDP Income for the quarter came down to +1.4% from +1.8% last reported, and Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers is registering -0.2%, following -0.3% put up last time around.
Finally, the Jackson Hole symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, is currently underway. The summit goes through Saturday, though it’s tomorrow’s address from Fed Chair Jay Powell that’s getting the most attention, and has all week. At last year’s symposium, Powell affirmed his “transitory” inflation comments, which obviously proved erroneous over time. Perhaps based on this, Powell may not be so willing to make such bold pronouncements on the condition of the U.S. economy going forward.
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Initial Jobless Claims Come in Lower Than Expected
We are back-loaded with economic data this week, including two big reports out this morning prior to the opening bell: Weekly Jobless Claims, a new PCE Price Index and the first revision to Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Overall, results are good, and have taken pre-market futures from slightly in the green to another slight step more into the green.
Initial Jobless Claims came in for last week at 243K, the fourth consecutive week this figure has been north of 240K (and well off the 181K we were reporting just a few months ago), but this is down from the 254K analysts were expecting. The previous week’s 245K was downwardly revised by 5000 claims, also relative good news for the labor market. We’re also well off the near-term highs of 261K from mid-July, and have a 4-week average of 247K.
Continuing Claims were also better than expected: 1.415 million longer-term jobless claims was a nice step down from the 1.434 million reported the previous week. Also, as you likely know already, continuing claims are reported a week in arrears from new claims; perhaps this means we’ll see an even lower number this time next week.
The first revision to Q2 GDP came down (up?) 30 basis points, from -0.9% originally reported to -0.6% this morning. This is slightly worse than the expected -0.5% for the revision, and clearly we’ve still got two-straight months of negative GDP growth, which indicates a recession (though there are still many analysts who would put an asterisk by this), but it’s nevertheless more economic data headed in the right direction, if not quite “there” yet.
The PCE Price Index for Q2 came in at +7.1%, just as we saw in the previous report. Similarly, on core we see this number down to +4.4%, also in-line from the prior read. Real GDP Income for the quarter came down to +1.4% from +1.8% last reported, and Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers is registering -0.2%, following -0.3% put up last time around.
Finally, the Jackson Hole symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, is currently underway. The summit goes through Saturday, though it’s tomorrow’s address from Fed Chair Jay Powell that’s getting the most attention, and has all week. At last year’s symposium, Powell affirmed his “transitory” inflation comments, which obviously proved erroneous over time. Perhaps based on this, Powell may not be so willing to make such bold pronouncements on the condition of the U.S. economy going forward.