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Housing Prices Roll Over, Still High in Florida, Texas
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Tuesday, August 30, 2022
The backward-looking — but highly regarded for accuracy — Case-Shiller Home Price Index continued to tick down in June of this year: +18.0% year over year is still high, but notably off the upwardly revised +19.9% in May. Keep in mind these figures still reflect only the first interest rate hikes from the Fed, which made their way quickly to 30-year mortgage rates. This sub-20% home price growth may reflect only the first of (so far) two straight 75 basis-point reads.
This headline number is averaged out from the 10-City survey (+17.4% vs. +19.1% in May, year over year) and the 20-City (+18.6% from +20.5% in the previous read). Month over month, June home sales overall rose +0.4%, less than half the +1.0% expected. This is yet further evidence the housing market has rolled over in earnest, though we are admittedly off huge highs earlier in 2022 (an all-time high +21.2% on the 20-year in April). Still, as home ownership represents as much as 1/3 of total GDP, this is good news for bringing inflation down overall.
That said, we’re still seeing monstrous gains in certain regions of the country, particularly Southern states with low tax burdens (allowing for higher price points on homes). Florida and Texas continued to demonstrate their dominance in home price expenditures: Tampa was +35% year over year, Miami +33.0% and Dallas +28.2%. Of the remaining cities, only New York and Chicago closed higher month over month. This continues the housing slide narrative: recent top cities like Seattle, Phoenix and San Diego are perhaps off their peak levels, demonstrably.
After today’s opening bell, we also get a couple key economic metrics hitting the tape: the Consumer Confidence Index for August is expected to improve to 97.4 from 95.7 the last time around, while the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July is expected to show 10.3 million openings, as compared to 10.7 million the previous read. For June’s numbers, Job Quits came down a smidge to 4.2 million.
This will be only the opening salvo of jobs data to be released this week: tomorrow morning brings us the private-sector payroll survey from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) , and Friday is the big non-farm payroll report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). ADP has taken most of the summer off; the last headline print we got was 128K new private-sector jobs in May — by far the lowest read of the year. Expectations are for around 300K in this morning’s read. BLS figures are expected to come in somewhere just north of 300K — still good, considering the prolonged strength in the post-Covid labor market.
Image: Shutterstock
Housing Prices Roll Over, Still High in Florida, Texas
Tuesday, August 30, 2022
The backward-looking — but highly regarded for accuracy — Case-Shiller Home Price Index continued to tick down in June of this year: +18.0% year over year is still high, but notably off the upwardly revised +19.9% in May. Keep in mind these figures still reflect only the first interest rate hikes from the Fed, which made their way quickly to 30-year mortgage rates. This sub-20% home price growth may reflect only the first of (so far) two straight 75 basis-point reads.
This headline number is averaged out from the 10-City survey (+17.4% vs. +19.1% in May, year over year) and the 20-City (+18.6% from +20.5% in the previous read). Month over month, June home sales overall rose +0.4%, less than half the +1.0% expected. This is yet further evidence the housing market has rolled over in earnest, though we are admittedly off huge highs earlier in 2022 (an all-time high +21.2% on the 20-year in April). Still, as home ownership represents as much as 1/3 of total GDP, this is good news for bringing inflation down overall.
That said, we’re still seeing monstrous gains in certain regions of the country, particularly Southern states with low tax burdens (allowing for higher price points on homes). Florida and Texas continued to demonstrate their dominance in home price expenditures: Tampa was +35% year over year, Miami +33.0% and Dallas +28.2%. Of the remaining cities, only New York and Chicago closed higher month over month. This continues the housing slide narrative: recent top cities like Seattle, Phoenix and San Diego are perhaps off their peak levels, demonstrably.
After today’s opening bell, we also get a couple key economic metrics hitting the tape: the Consumer Confidence Index for August is expected to improve to 97.4 from 95.7 the last time around, while the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July is expected to show 10.3 million openings, as compared to 10.7 million the previous read. For June’s numbers, Job Quits came down a smidge to 4.2 million.
This will be only the opening salvo of jobs data to be released this week: tomorrow morning brings us the private-sector payroll survey from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) , and Friday is the big non-farm payroll report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). ADP has taken most of the summer off; the last headline print we got was 128K new private-sector jobs in May — by far the lowest read of the year. Expectations are for around 300K in this morning’s read. BLS figures are expected to come in somewhere just north of 300K — still good, considering the prolonged strength in the post-Covid labor market.
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