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Why Is Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Down 16% Since Last Earnings Report?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Allegiant Travel (ALGT - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 16% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allegiant Travel due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
In-line Earnings at Allegiant in Q2
Allegiant reported second-quarter 2022 earnings (excluding 38 cents from non-recurring items) of 62 cents per share, which matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Operating revenues of $629.8 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $629.2 million and increased 33.2% on a year-over-year basis.
Passenger revenues, which accounted for the bulk (94.1%) of the top line, soared 33.5% on a year-over-year basis. The upside can be attributed to improvement in air-travel demand. Air traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles or RPMs) for scheduled service surged 33.9% in the quarter under review. Capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASMs) also increased 8.5% year over year. Load factor increased 1650 basis points to 87.3% in the reported quarter, as traffic surge outweighed capacity expansion.
Operating cost per available seat miles (CASM), excluding fuel, escalated 42.2% year over year to 6.94 cents. Average fuel cost per gallon (scheduled) shot up in excess of 100% to $4.33 in the quarter. Total scheduled service passenger revenue per available seat miles rose 22.5% to 12.69 cents. ALGT exited the June quarter with 115 planes in its fleet. Fleet size at the end of 2022 is expected to be 124.
For third-quarter 2022, fuel cost per gallon is expected to be $3.80. Total operating revenues are likely to increase 29% from third-quarter 2019 actuals. Non-fuel unit costs are likely to increase approximately 10%. Capacity for scheduled service and total system are likely to increase 18% and 16%, respectively, from third-quarter 2019 actuals.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -80.46% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Allegiant Travel has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Allegiant Travel has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Why Is Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Down 16% Since Last Earnings Report?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Allegiant Travel (ALGT - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 16% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allegiant Travel due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
In-line Earnings at Allegiant in Q2
Allegiant reported second-quarter 2022 earnings (excluding 38 cents from non-recurring items) of 62 cents per share, which matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Operating revenues of $629.8 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $629.2 million and increased 33.2% on a year-over-year basis.
Passenger revenues, which accounted for the bulk (94.1%) of the top line, soared 33.5% on a year-over-year basis. The upside can be attributed to improvement in air-travel demand. Air traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles or RPMs) for scheduled service surged 33.9% in the quarter under review. Capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASMs) also increased 8.5% year over year. Load factor increased 1650 basis points to 87.3% in the reported quarter, as traffic surge outweighed capacity expansion.
Operating cost per available seat miles (CASM), excluding fuel, escalated 42.2% year over year to 6.94 cents. Average fuel cost per gallon (scheduled) shot up in excess of 100% to $4.33 in the quarter. Total scheduled service passenger revenue per available seat miles rose 22.5% to 12.69 cents. ALGT exited the June quarter with 115 planes in its fleet. Fleet size at the end of 2022 is expected to be 124.
For third-quarter 2022, fuel cost per gallon is expected to be $3.80. Total operating revenues are likely to increase 29% from third-quarter 2019 actuals. Non-fuel unit costs are likely to increase approximately 10%. Capacity for scheduled service and total system are likely to increase 18% and 16%, respectively, from third-quarter 2019 actuals.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -80.46% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Allegiant Travel has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Allegiant Travel has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.