A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Moderna (MRNA Quick QuoteMRNA - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 28.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Moderna due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Moderna Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

Moderna reported earnings of $5.24 per share for the second quarter of 2022, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.45. The company had reported earnings of $6.46 per share in the year-ago quarter. The year-over-year decline in the bottom line was due to higher operating expenses incurred during the second quarter.

Revenues in the quarter were $4.75 billion, significantly beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.85 billion. Total revenues were up 9.1% year over year, driven by increasing product sales, entirely from the COVID-19 vaccine.

Quarter in Detail

Product sales were $4.53 billion, up 8% year over year, driven by a higher average selling price due to a favorable customer mix. However, sequentially the sales figures declined 23.5%.

Grant revenues were $183 million compared with $139 million in the year-ago quarter. Collaboration revenues were $35 million compared with $18 million in the year-ago quarter.

Selling, general and administrative expenses were $211 million, up 74.4% year over year. The rise can be attributed to an endowment to the Moderna Charitable Foundation and an increase in certain commercialization costs.

Research & development expenses were $710 million, up 68.6% from the year-ago period. The significant increase was primarily attributable to higher clinical costs and personnel-related expenses.

The company ended the quarter with $18.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents, compared with $19.3 billion as of Mar 31, 2022.

2022 Guidance

Moderna stated that it has advance purchase agreements with different countries for Spikevax and its booster doses worth approximately $21 billion. The company believes that sales will be slightly higher in the second half of 2022 compared with the first half.

The company expects R&D and SG&A expenses to be approximately $4 billion in 2022. It expects capital expenditure to be in the range of $600 million to $800 million.

In February 2022, Moderna authorized a share repurchase program of $3 billion. It completed its previous share repurchase program, initiated during the third quarter of 2021, of $1 billion in January.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -29.32% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Moderna has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Moderna has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.