We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. To learn more, click here. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Here's How Investors Can Find Strong Finance Stocks with the Zacks ESP Screener
Read MoreHide Full Article
Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Discover?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Discover (DFS - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) 30 days from its next quarterly earnings release on October 19, 2022, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $4.06 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the $4.06 Most Accurate Estimate and the $3.74 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Discover has an Earnings ESP of +8.54%. Investors should also know that DFS is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
DFS is just one of a large group of Finance stocks with a positive ESP figure. Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Slated to report earnings on November 1, 2022, Ashford Hospitality Trust holds a #2 (Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $1.09 a share 43 days from its next quarterly update.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ashford Hospitality Trust is $0.82, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +33.47%.
DFS and AHT's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:
Image: Bigstock
Here's How Investors Can Find Strong Finance Stocks with the Zacks ESP Screener
Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Discover?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Discover (DFS - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) 30 days from its next quarterly earnings release on October 19, 2022, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $4.06 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the $4.06 Most Accurate Estimate and the $3.74 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Discover has an Earnings ESP of +8.54%. Investors should also know that DFS is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
DFS is just one of a large group of Finance stocks with a positive ESP figure. Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Slated to report earnings on November 1, 2022, Ashford Hospitality Trust holds a #2 (Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $1.09 a share 43 days from its next quarterly update.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ashford Hospitality Trust is $0.82, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +33.47%.
DFS and AHT's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>