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Progressive Q3 Preview: Can Shares Stay Hot?

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The Zacks Finance Sector has performed marginally better than the S&P 500 YTD, down roughly 21% vs. the general market’s loss of more than 23%.

One company in the sector, The Progressive Corp. (PGR - Free Report) , is on deck to unveil earnings this week on October 13th.

Progressive is a leading independent agency writer of private passenger auto coverage and the market share leader for motorcycle products since 1998.

As it stands, the company is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) with an overall VGM Score of a C.

How does PGR shape up heading into its print? Let’s take a closer look.

Share Performance

PGR shares have been notably hot in 2022, up more than 20% and crushing the S&P 500.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Over the last three months, PGR shares have continued their market-beating trajectory, up 3% vs. the S&P 500’s decline of 5.4%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The strong price action of PGR shares tells us that buyers have been out in full force all year.

Valuation

PGR shares are expensive; the company’s 25.7X forward earnings multiple is well above its 15.4X five-year median and represents a sizable 92% premium relative to its Zacks Finance sector.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Quarterly Estimates

Analysts have been overwhelmingly bullish in their earnings outlook, with five upwards revisions hitting the tape over the last several months. The Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate of $1.40 suggests Y/Y earnings growth of a triple-digit 900%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

PGR’s top line growth is also impressive; the Zacks Consensus Sales Estimate of $13.2 billion suggests Y/Y revenue growth of 11%.

Quarterly Performance

PGR has primarily exceeded quarterly estimates, with six bottom line beats across its last ten reports. Still, in its latest print, the company reported earnings in line with the Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate.

Top line results have been disappointing; PGR has fallen short of the Zacks Consensus Sales Estimate in eight of its last ten reports. Below is a chart illustrating the company’s revenue on a quarterly basis.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Putting Everything Together

PGR shares have displayed remarkable relative strength in 2022, beating out the S&P 500 across multiple timeframes.

Valuation levels appear a bit stretched, with the company’s forward earnings multiple sitting well above its five-year median and Zacks sector.

Analysts have had a bullish stance for the quarter, with estimates suggesting notable Y/Y upticks in both revenue and earnings.

Further, PGR has primarily exceeded bottom line estimates, but revenue has repeatedly come in below expectations.

Heading into the release, Progressive (PGR - Free Report) carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) with an Earnings ESP Score of 0.2%.


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