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Is an Earnings Beat in Store for Ameriprise (AMP) in Q3?

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Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 25, after market close. Its revenues and earnings in the to-be-reported quarter are anticipated to have witnessed a decline on a year-over-year basis.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Higher revenues, along with improvements in the assets under management (AUM) and assets under administration (AUA) balances, supported the results. However, a rise in expenses was a headwind.

Ameriprise has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 4.3%.

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $5.85 per share, which indicates a fall of 1% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. The consensus estimate has been revised marginally lower over the past 30 days. Our estimate for earnings is $5.99.

The consensus estimate for total sales is pegged at $3.45 billion, which indicates a 1.3% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the same is $3.46 billion, implying a year-over-year decline of 1.5%.

Estimates & Key Factors to Note for Q3

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for management and financial advice fees (constituting more than 60% of the company’s total net revenues) is pegged at $2.13 billion, which suggests a fall of 10% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for the same is $2.27 billion, indicating a decline of 4.3%.

The consensus estimate for distribution fees of $448 million indicates a year-over-year fall of 2.2%. Our estimate for the same is $392.4 million, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 14.3%. The consensus estimate for premiums, policy and contract charges is pegged at $328 million, whereas our estimate for the same is $299.1 million.

The consensus estimate for net investment income of $350 million suggests a year-over-year decline of 54.7%. Our estimate for the same is $421.9 million, indicating a fall of 45.4%. The consensus mark for other revenues of $110 million indicates a 2.7% decline. Our estimate for the same is $87.1 million, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 22.9%.

Based on the expectations of improved advisor productivity, the Advice & Wealth Management segment is expected to have recorded growth in assets in the third quarter.

While Ameriprise’s initiatives to focus on cost management have resulted in controlled general and administration expenses in the past, overall costs are anticipated to have been elevated in the to-be-reported quarter due to costs related to technology upgrades. Our estimate for total expenses is pegged at $2.55 billion, indicating a rise of 56.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Earnings Whispers

According to our quantitative model, the chances of Ameriprise beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Ameriprise has an Earnings ESP of +0.06%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks to Consider

A couple of other finance stocks, which you may want to consider as these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases per our model, are Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc. (SYBT - Free Report) and Ares Management (ARES - Free Report) .

The Earnings ESP for Stock Yards Bancorp is +2.15%. SYBT carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. It is expected to report results on Oct 26. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Ares Management is scheduled to release quarterly results on Oct 27. ARES currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +5.04%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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