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Novavax (NVAX) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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We expect investors to focus on the sales performance of Novavax, Inc.’s (NVAX - Free Report) protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, its sole marketed product, when it reports third-quarter 2022 results.
NVAX’s surprise record has been dismal so far, as its earnings missed expectations in each of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 232.53%, on average. In the last reported quarter, Novavax witnessed a negative earnings surprise of 218.51%.
Shares of Novavax have plunged 86.5% so far this year compared with the industry’s decline of 26.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.
Factors at Play
The company’s COVID vaccine gained authorization for use as a primary two-dose regimen in several countries, including the United States, Australia, Japan, India and various European countries.
Last week, the FDA expanded the emergency use authorization granted to Novavax’s COVID-19 Vaccine, Adjuvanted (NVX-CoV2373), to allow its use as a booster dose in adults aged 18 years and older.
Novavax’s COVID-19 Vaccine, Adjuvanted, has also been endorsed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for use as a booster dose in adults.
The company’s booster dose, the Nuvaxovid vaccine, was also authorized for use in New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Israel and the European Union during the third quarter.
All these authorizations are likely to aid NVAX to generate product revenues from the sale of its COVID vaccine during the reported quarter. The booster dose is likely to generate more revenues than the primary regimen as most of the population is already vaccinated.
Novavax’s top line is likely to have been aided by the sale of its COVID-19 vaccine in the third quarter. NVX-CoV2373 generated sales worth $55 million in the last reported quarter. However, vaccine sales could suffer as the impact of the pandemic is lessening and demand for vaccines is going down. Investors will be keen to get an update on the same at the upcoming earnings call.
We also expect management to provide an update on Novavax’s other pipeline candidates.
In October 2022, NVAX announced positive top-line data from a phase I/II study evaluating the safety and tolerability of its COVID-19-Influenza Combination (“CIC”) vaccine candidate. The CIC vaccine candidate proved feasible, well-tolerated and immunogenic, inducing both antibody and T-cell responses against SARS-CoV-2 and homologous and heterologous influenza strains in subjects.
Both the influenza vaccine and NVX-CoV2373 had previously demonstrated encouraging results in their separate phase III clinical studies.
Novavax also completed a phase III pivotal study on its nanoparticle seasonal influenza vaccine candidate, NanoFlu, for patients aged 65 years and above. The study met all eight primary endpoints. An update on the timeline for the regulatory filing of the vaccine is expected during the upcoming earnings call.
ResVax, Novavax’s potential respiratory syncytial virus vaccine, is being evaluated in a phase III study to protect infants by immunizing their mothers against the disease.
Activities related to the development of the portfolio of vaccine candidates are likely to have escalated NVAX’s operating expenses in the third quarter.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Novavax this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Novavax’s Earnings ESP is -35.07% as the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $1.44 per share while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is much higher at $2.21 per share.
Here are a few stocks worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.58% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Lilly’s stock has risen 23.4% this year so far. Lilly missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. Lilly has a four-quarter earnings negative surprise of 5.11%, on average. LLY is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 1.
Acadia (ACAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +15.82% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Acadia’sstock has lost 32% this year so far. ACAD topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters. ACAD has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.83%, on average. ACAD is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 2.
ImmunoGen has an Earnings ESP of +4.39% and a Zacks Rank #3.
ImmunoGen stock has declined 17.2% this year so far. ImmunoGen topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. IMGN has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.53%, on average. IMGN is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 4.
Image: Shutterstock
Novavax (NVAX) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
We expect investors to focus on the sales performance of Novavax, Inc.’s (NVAX - Free Report) protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, its sole marketed product, when it reports third-quarter 2022 results.
NVAX’s surprise record has been dismal so far, as its earnings missed expectations in each of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 232.53%, on average. In the last reported quarter, Novavax witnessed a negative earnings surprise of 218.51%.
Shares of Novavax have plunged 86.5% so far this year compared with the industry’s decline of 26.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.
Factors at Play
The company’s COVID vaccine gained authorization for use as a primary two-dose regimen in several countries, including the United States, Australia, Japan, India and various European countries.
Last week, the FDA expanded the emergency use authorization granted to Novavax’s COVID-19 Vaccine, Adjuvanted (NVX-CoV2373), to allow its use as a booster dose in adults aged 18 years and older.
Novavax’s COVID-19 Vaccine, Adjuvanted, has also been endorsed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for use as a booster dose in adults.
The company’s booster dose, the Nuvaxovid vaccine, was also authorized for use in New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Israel and the European Union during the third quarter.
All these authorizations are likely to aid NVAX to generate product revenues from the sale of its COVID vaccine during the reported quarter. The booster dose is likely to generate more revenues than the primary regimen as most of the population is already vaccinated.
Novavax’s top line is likely to have been aided by the sale of its COVID-19 vaccine in the third quarter. NVX-CoV2373 generated sales worth $55 million in the last reported quarter. However, vaccine sales could suffer as the impact of the pandemic is lessening and demand for vaccines is going down. Investors will be keen to get an update on the same at the upcoming earnings call.
We also expect management to provide an update on Novavax’s other pipeline candidates.
In October 2022, NVAX announced positive top-line data from a phase I/II study evaluating the safety and tolerability of its COVID-19-Influenza Combination (“CIC”) vaccine candidate. The CIC vaccine candidate proved feasible, well-tolerated and immunogenic, inducing both antibody and T-cell responses against SARS-CoV-2 and homologous and heterologous influenza strains in subjects.
Both the influenza vaccine and NVX-CoV2373 had previously demonstrated encouraging results in their separate phase III clinical studies.
Novavax also completed a phase III pivotal study on its nanoparticle seasonal influenza vaccine candidate, NanoFlu, for patients aged 65 years and above. The study met all eight primary endpoints. An update on the timeline for the regulatory filing of the vaccine is expected during the upcoming earnings call.
ResVax, Novavax’s potential respiratory syncytial virus vaccine, is being evaluated in a phase III study to protect infants by immunizing their mothers against the disease.
Activities related to the development of the portfolio of vaccine candidates are likely to have escalated NVAX’s operating expenses in the third quarter.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Novavax this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Novavax’s Earnings ESP is -35.07% as the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $1.44 per share while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is much higher at $2.21 per share.
Zacks Rank: Novavax currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Novavax, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Novavax, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Novavax, Inc. Quote
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.58% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Lilly’s stock has risen 23.4% this year so far. Lilly missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. Lilly has a four-quarter earnings negative surprise of 5.11%, on average. LLY is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 1.
Acadia (ACAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +15.82% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Acadia’sstock has lost 32% this year so far. ACAD topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters. ACAD has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.83%, on average. ACAD is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 2.
ImmunoGen has an Earnings ESP of +4.39% and a Zacks Rank #3.
ImmunoGen stock has declined 17.2% this year so far. ImmunoGen topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. IMGN has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.53%, on average. IMGN is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 4.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.