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Amazon Q3 Preview: Rebound Quarter Inbound?

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The Zacks Retail and Wholesale sector has lagged the S&P 500 by a wide margin in 2022, down roughly 25%.

A behemoth in the realm, Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) , is on deck to unveil quarterly results on October 27th, after the market close.

Amazon is one of the largest e-commerce providers, with its AWS services quickly becoming a solid contributor to the company’s growth.

Currently, the e-commerce titan carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with an overall VGM Score of a D.

Let’s take a deeper dive into what to expect.

Share Performance & Valuation

Year-to-date, it’s been a bumpy ride for AMZN shares, down just above 30% and lagging behind the S&P 500’s performance.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Over the last three months, however, the selling has seemingly slowed, with AMZN shares losing roughly 4% in value and nearly trading in line with the general market.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

AMZN’s valuation multiples have pulled back by a fair margin amid the stretch of adverse price action; the company’s 2.4X forward price-to-sales ratio is beneath its 3.3X five-year median and highs of 3.9X in 2021.

The value represents an 89% premium relative to the Zacks Retail and Wholesale sector.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Quarterly Estimates

Analysts have been mixed in their earnings outlook, with a single downwards and upwards earnings estimate revision hitting the tape over the last several months. The Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate of $0.23 suggests a Y/Y earnings decline of roughly 25%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Amazon’s top-line appears to be in better standing; the Zacks Consensus Sales Estimate of $127.9 billion indicates an improvement of more than 15% from year-ago quarterly sales of $110.8 billion.

Quarterly Performance & Market Reactions

Amazon has had difficulty exceeding earnings estimates as of late, falling short of the Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate in three of its last four quarters. Just in its latest earnings release, the e-commerce titan registered a 33% EPS miss.

Sales results paint a similar story; AMZN has fallen short of revenue estimates in three of its last four quarters, with the one beat coming in its latest print. Below is a chart illustrating the company’s revenue on a quarterly basis.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Expect shares to be volatile following the release; following its latest quarterly print, shares climbed roughly 11% the day after. Following the release in the quarter before that, shares fell close to 10%.

Putting Everything Together

AMZN shares have sailed through rough waters in 2022, but the selling appears to have slowed down over the last three months.

Valuation multiples are still a bit steep, but the company’s forward price-to-sales ratio sits well beneath historical values.

Analysts have been mixed in their earnings outlook, and estimates suggest a Y/Y decline in earnings but an uptick in revenue, likely a reflection of margin compression.

The e-commerce titan has struggled to exceed quarterly estimates as of late, and shares have witnessed large price swings following the release of its last two prints.

Heading into the print, Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with an Earnings ESP Score of -6.7%.


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