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Starbucks Q3 Preview: What's in Store?

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The Zacks Retail & Wholesale sector has struggled to find its footing in 2022, down more than 25% and widely lagging behind the general market.

One of the more popular companies residing in the sector, Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) , is on deck to unveil Q4 earnings on November 3rd, after the market close.

Starbucks is the leading roaster and retailer of specialty coffee globally. In addition to fresh, rich-brewed coffees, Starbucks’ offerings include many complimentary food items and a selection of premium teas and other beverages, sold mainly through the company’s retail stores.

Currently, the coffee giant carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with an overall VGM Score of a B.

How does everything else stack up? Let’s take a closer look.

Share Performance & Valuation

SBUX shares have been no exception to the market’s woes in 2022, down more than 25% and lagging behind the S&P 500 by a fair margin.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

However, over the last three months, the selling has slowed down visibly, with SBUX shares losing roughly 2% in value and outperforming the S&P 500.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Starbucks shares currently trade at a 25.9X forward earnings multiple, below the 28.8X five-year median by a fair margin but representing a 10% premium relative to its Zacks Retail and Wholesale sector.

SBUX carries a Value Style Score of a C.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Quarterly Estimates

Over the last several months, five analysts have lowered their earnings outlook, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate trend slipping marginally. The Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate of $0.73 suggests a Y/Y earnings decline of 27%.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The company’s top-line is in better health; the Zacks Consensus Sales Estimate of $8.4 billion indicates an improvement of roughly 3.4% from year-ago quarterly sales of $8.2 billion.

Quarterly Performance & Market Reactions

The company’s earnings results have been mixed across its last four releases, with one EPS beat coming in its latest quarter.

Sales results have primarily been mixed also; SBUX has exceeded revenue estimates in two of its last four prints. Below is a chart illustrating the company’s revenue on a quarterly basis.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

In addition, it’s worth noting that the market cheered on its latest earnings release, with shares moving upwards by roughly 4% the following day.

Putting Everything Together

SBUX shares are in the red YTD but have outperformed the general market over the last three months, indicating that the selling has slowed.

The company’s forward earnings multiple sits below its five-year median but above its Zacks Sector average.

Analysts have been bearish in their earnings outlook, with estimates suggesting a decline in earnings but an uptick in revenue, likely a reflection of margin compression.

The company’s quarterly results have been mixed as of late, and the market cheered on its latest earnings release.

Heading into the print, Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report) carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) paired with an Earnings ESP Score of 0.5%.


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