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Red Robin (RRGB) Stock Up on Q3 Earnings & Revenues Beat

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Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB - Free Report) reported its third-quarter fiscal 2022 results, with both earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Following the results, the company’s shares gained 5.7% in the after-hours trading session on Nov 2.

Earnings & Revenue Discussion

In the fiscal third quarter, Red Robin reported an adjusted loss per share of $1.03, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.30. In the year-ago quarter, the company reported an adjusted loss of 88 cents.

Quarterly revenues of $286.9 million surpassed the consensus mark of $282 million. The top line increased 4.2% year over year. The upside was primarily driven by favorable guest check and increased menu mix and pricing.

During the quarter under review, comparable restaurant revenues rose 5.3% year over year. The upside was primarily driven by a 9% rise in guest check and a 3.7% decrease in average guest count. The rise in average guest check can be attributed to a 7.7% increase in pricing, a 2.5% improvement in menu mix and a 1.2% decline in discounts.

Operating Results

The restaurant-level operating profit margin was 12.6% in the fiscal third quarter compared with the 12.5% reported in the prior-year quarter.

During the fiscal third quarter, restaurant labor costs (as a percentage of restaurant revenues) decreased 130 basis points (bps) year over year to 35.6%. The upside was primarily due to labor inflation.

Meanwhile, other operating costs declined 30 bps year over year to 18.7%. During the quarter under review, cost of sales increased 180 bps year over year to 25%. Occupancy costs fell 20 bps year over year to 8.1%.

Adjusted earnings before interest expenses, income taxes, depreciation and amortization during the fiscal third quarter amounted to $4 million compared with $8.2 million in the year-ago quarter.

Other Financial Information

As of Oct 2, 2022, Red Robin had cash and cash equivalents of $50 million compared with $22.8 million as of Dec 26, 2021. Long-term debt as of Oct 2, 2022, stood at $189.3 million compared with $167.3 million as of Dec 26, 2021. Inventories during the quarter were $25.2 million, flat year over year.

Guidance

Red Robin updated 2022 guidance. For fiscal 2022, the company now expects capital expenditures in the range of $43-$48 million. This includes investments in restaurants, infrastructure and systems capital maintenance, digital guest, operational technology solutions and off-premises execution enhancements.

For fiscal 2022, the company continues to expect selling, general and administrative costs in the range of $138-$142 million compared with the prior estimate of $145-$155 million. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated between $53 million and $58 million, down from the earlier estimate of $80 million and $90 million. In 2022, the company anticipates pricing in the mid-single digit, cost inflation in the mid-double digits and restaurant labor cost inflation in the mid-to-high single digit.

Zacks Rank & Key Picks

Red Robin currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry are Potbelly Corporation (PBPB - Free Report) , Wingstop Inc. (WING - Free Report) and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) .

Potbelly currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). PBPB has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.2%, on average. Shares of PBPB have declined 20.6% in the past year. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Potbelly’s 2022 sales and EPS suggests growth of 17.9% and 101.9%, respectively, from the corresponding year-ago period’s levels.

Wingstop also sports a Zacks Rank #1. WING has a long-term earnings growth rate of 11%. Shares of WING have improved 2.3% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Wingstop’s 2023 sales and EPS suggests growth of 18.1% and 17.1%, respectively, from the comparable year-ago period’s levels.

Chipotle currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). CMG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.1%, on average. The stock has declined 16.4% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle’s 2022 sales and EPS suggests growth of 15.2% and 30.7%, respectively, from the corresponding year-ago period’s levels.

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