Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Grocery Outlet (GO) Lined Up for Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports third-quarter 2022 earnings on Nov 8 after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $876.2 million, indicating an increase of 14% from the prior-year reported figure.

The bottom line of this extreme value retailer of quality, name-brand consumables and fresh products is also expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter earnings per share has been stable at 25 cents over the past 30 days. The figure suggests an increase of 4.2% from the year-ago period.

Grocery Outlet has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Emeryville, CA-based company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 20.8%.

Factors to Note

Grocery Outlet’s flexible sourcing and distribution business model, which helps it offer products at exceptional value and excellent service from independent operators, are among the key factors driving revenues.

The company’s opportunistic purchasing strategy, marketing efforts, store-growth endeavors and e-commerce initiatives to deepen the customer reach also appear encouraging. Cumulatively, these are likely to have favorably impacted the to-be-reported quarter's top line.

The company has been offering the same-day delivery of everyday essentials and staples from nearly all its stores in collaboration with Instacart. We believe that Grocery Outlet’s compelling value proposition continues to attract bargain hunters, encourage customers to revisit stores and increase basket sizes.

On its last earnings call, management guided third-quarter 2022 net sales of approximately $875 million compared with $768.9 million reported in the year-ago period. It projected comparable store sales growth of 10% against a decline of 4.3% witnessed in the prior-year quarter.

Despite these tailwinds, high labor costs, increased freight expenses and supply-chain issues remain concerns. These might have weighed on the company's margins.

Management guided a third-quarter gross margin of approximately 30.6% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 6.3%. These show marginal contraction from a gross margin of 30.8% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.7% in the year-ago period.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Grocery Outlet this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Grocery Outlet has a Zacks Rank #3 but an Earnings ESP of -3.03%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

3 Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Arhaus (ARHS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.67% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is likely to register a bottom-line increase when it reports third-quarter 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share of 15 cents suggests an increase of 15.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Arhaus' top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $293.1 million, which indicates an increase of 44.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. ARHS has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 92%, on average.

Dollar General (DG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.35% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share of $2.54 suggests an increase of 22.1% from the year-ago quarter.

Dollar General’s top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $9.43 billion, which suggests a rise of 10.7% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. DG delivered an earnings beat of 2.2%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Dollar Tree (DLTR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.57% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share of $1.16 suggests an increase of 20.8% from the year-ago quarter.

Dollar Tree’s top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $6.83 billion, which suggests a rise of 6.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. DLTR delivered an earnings beat of 8.6%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Published in