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In the Global Week Ahead, major politics get to the top of the world’s financial agenda.
On Monday, Nov 7th, in Egypt, the United Nation’s week-long COP27 gets underway.
“COP stands for ‘Conference of the Parties,’ which is a generic phrase in International Relations-speak, meaning a committee created after an international treaty is signed, tasked with making decisions about how that treaty is implemented.
“There are all kinds of COPs for various international agreements, from chemical weapons to combating desertification.
“But the term COP has come to be associated with the meetings of one particular committee: that created after the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
“154 countries signed the UNFCCC in June 1992, agreeing to combat harmful human impacts on the climate. Since then, COP meetings have been held (almost) annually to discuss how exactly that should be achieved, and monitor what progress has been made.
“Each COP is usually referred to by its number in the series, e.g. COP26 was the 26th COP meeting.”
– Global Witness
On Tuesday, Nov. 8th, U.S. midterm elections happen.
On Thursday, the macro data front reaches a key CPI moment. Fresh U.S. inflation data will provide fresh clues on how elusive a policy rate “pivot” from the Fed might be.
Across the week, Mainland China will release key macro data. Markets are still struggling to read the runes on how Beijing might shape its COVID policy in the future.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders.
(1) On Tuesday, Nov. 8th, U.S. midterms elections happen, physically.
Don't forget the politics as the U.S. gears up for midterm elections on Nov. 8th, where control of Congress and President Joe Biden's agenda for the two years remaining in his term are at stake.
U.S. stocks have performed better in periods of divided government, a result that seems increasingly likely with Republicans favored to wrest control of the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate.
Average annual S&P500 returns have been +14% in a split Congress and +13% in a Republican-held Congress under a Democratic president, compared with +10% when Democrats controlled both the presidency and Congress.
Midterms have also historically ushered in a long period of gains in U.S. stocks – a development many would cheer after the past year's tumble in the S&P500.
(2) Thursday will show stock traders fresh U.S. CPI data.
On Thursday, it's time for U.S. inflation numbers — a data set that's proven to be an important turning point for markets this year as consumer prices surged to decades high peaks.
Investors will once again be looking for signs that price pressures are slowing after a barrage of rate hikes.
Yet the world's foremost central bank just said the ultimate benchmark policy rate level will likely be higher than previously estimated to tame inflation, underlining the threat that rising prices pose to the economy.
A stronger-than-expected reading will likely weigh on stocks and bonds, potentially ramping up expectations that policymakers will need to get even more hawkish.
A Reuters poll showed analysts expecting inflation to rise by 0.7% month-on-month.
(3) Keep an eye on central bank comments.
After over 2,300 basis points worth of rate hikes in the current tightening cycle from ten big developed economies, markets had hoped for a dovish pivot to take away the sting.
No chance. The Fed and Bank of England just delivered big 75 basis point (bps) rate increases and with inflation stubbornly high, the message from central banks is clear — more hikes are needed.
But just maybe those moves could be less aggressive, as comments from Fed Chief Jerome Powell suggested. Australia's central bank has already slowed the pace of its rate hikes and delivered a mere 25 bps hike on Tuesday.
Data and central bank comments in days ahead will remain under scrutiny.
The much-hoped for dovish pivot remains elusive and battered world markets may have to settle for more but less for now.
(4) Mainland China’s zero-COVID policy gets tested. Fresh macro data comes out.
Reopening rumors made an excuse for buying China in recent days, but the weight of money is on the sidelines watching for the economy — especially sentiment and spending — to show signs of a turning point.
Trade, inflation and credit data due in days to come may give a glimpse of that progress.
But the most intense focus may fall on foreign exchange reserves, which are being soaked up as authorities seek to put the brakes on a currency heading for its worst year since 1994.
Down eight months in a row, China's reserves are within a whisker of the psychological $3 trillion level. A drop below would be a mirror on dollar strength, and perhaps the depth of resolve to resist it in North Asia, where reserves are draining from Seoul to Taipei and Tokyo.
(5) A U.N. climate summit happens, this time in Egypt.
Climate issues take center-stage as world leaders kick off the COP27 talks on reining-in emissions in Egypt's coastal resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday.
With the conflict in Ukraine, food and energy supply issues and surging inflation dominating the agenda, expectations for progress have focused less on fresh commitments to lower emissions and more on keeping the show on the road.
Crucial will be what steps the developed world takes towards helping poorer countries cut emissions and adapt their economies to its effects and pay for damage caused.
Also expected are updates and new commitments on a range of pledges made last year in Glasgow, including on deforestation, methane and carbon markets.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next, I show a wide variety of top-ranked large-cap stocks.
(1) W.R. Berkley (WRB - Free Report) : This is a $75 a share, very large Property and Casualty insurance firm, based in Greenwich, CT, with a market cap of $19.8B. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(2) Tenaris Sa (TS - Free Report) : This is a $32 a share Steel Pipe and Tube firm, organized in Luxembourg, with a market cap of $18.7B. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
(3) Zscaler (ZS - Free Report) : This is a $131 a share Cloud-based Internet Security firm, with a market cap of $18.7B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
In this environment, believe it or not, there are still stock trading gems to mine.
Key Global Macro
Thursday’s 8:30 ET U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) print is the major data event.
On Monday, Mainland China’s OCT exports are out. Prior is +10.7% y/y in USD terms.
Mainland China’s imports for OCT come out too. Prior is +0.3% y/y in USD terms.
On Tuesday, the U.S. midterm elections happen.
On Wednesday, Mainland Chin’s CPI for OCT comes out. The consensus is for +2.3% y/y, after a +2.8% y/y print in the prior month. This is COVID-suppressed data.
On Thursday, the U.S. CPI for OCT comes out. The prior is +8.2% y/y.
Mainland China’s M2 money supply (prior +11.2% y/y growth) and new loans (prior 2,470B) for OCT come out.
On Friday, it is Veteran’s Day in the USA. In the U.S., banks and post offices will close on Friday for the federal holiday. U.S. stock exchanges remain open.
U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for NOV should be 60, after a 59.9 OCT print.
Conclusion
Most big quarterly EPS reports are in.
However, Walt Disney (DIS - Free Report) reports on Wednesday, November 8th.
Here is Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian’s Nov. 2nd vintage Q3 earnings data—
“For Q3-22, S&P500 earnings went up +2.0% on +10.7% higher revenues.”
“Excluding Energy, Q3 earnings would be -5.6%.”
“S&P500 earnings growth gets projected at +5.7% in 2022 and +3.8% in 2023.”
“Ex-Energy, 2022 S&P500 earnings are -1.2%.”
That’s it for me.
John Blank Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
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U.S. Midterm Elections: Global Week Ahead
In the Global Week Ahead, major politics get to the top of the world’s financial agenda.
On Monday, Nov 7th, in Egypt, the United Nation’s week-long COP27 gets underway.
“COP stands for ‘Conference of the Parties,’ which is a generic phrase in International Relations-speak, meaning a committee created after an international treaty is signed, tasked with making decisions about how that treaty is implemented.
“There are all kinds of COPs for various international agreements, from chemical weapons to combating desertification.
“But the term COP has come to be associated with the meetings of one particular committee: that created after the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
“154 countries signed the UNFCCC in June 1992, agreeing to combat harmful human impacts on the climate. Since then, COP meetings have been held (almost) annually to discuss how exactly that should be achieved, and monitor what progress has been made.
“Each COP is usually referred to by its number in the series, e.g. COP26 was the 26th COP meeting.”
– Global Witness
On Tuesday, Nov. 8th, U.S. midterm elections happen.
On Thursday, the macro data front reaches a key CPI moment. Fresh U.S. inflation data will provide fresh clues on how elusive a policy rate “pivot” from the Fed might be.
Across the week, Mainland China will release key macro data. Markets are still struggling to read the runes on how Beijing might shape its COVID policy in the future.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders.
(1) On Tuesday, Nov. 8th, U.S. midterms elections happen, physically.
Don't forget the politics as the U.S. gears up for midterm elections on Nov. 8th, where control of Congress and President Joe Biden's agenda for the two years remaining in his term are at stake.
U.S. stocks have performed better in periods of divided government, a result that seems increasingly likely with Republicans favored to wrest control of the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate.
Average annual S&P500 returns have been +14% in a split Congress and +13% in a Republican-held Congress under a Democratic president, compared with +10% when Democrats controlled both the presidency and Congress.
Midterms have also historically ushered in a long period of gains in U.S. stocks – a development many would cheer after the past year's tumble in the S&P500.
(2) Thursday will show stock traders fresh U.S. CPI data.
On Thursday, it's time for U.S. inflation numbers — a data set that's proven to be an important turning point for markets this year as consumer prices surged to decades high peaks.
Investors will once again be looking for signs that price pressures are slowing after a barrage of rate hikes.
Yet the world's foremost central bank just said the ultimate benchmark policy rate level will likely be higher than previously estimated to tame inflation, underlining the threat that rising prices pose to the economy.
A stronger-than-expected reading will likely weigh on stocks and bonds, potentially ramping up expectations that policymakers will need to get even more hawkish.
A Reuters poll showed analysts expecting inflation to rise by 0.7% month-on-month.
(3) Keep an eye on central bank comments.
After over 2,300 basis points worth of rate hikes in the current tightening cycle from ten big developed economies, markets had hoped for a dovish pivot to take away the sting.
No chance. The Fed and Bank of England just delivered big 75 basis point (bps) rate increases and with inflation stubbornly high, the message from central banks is clear — more hikes are needed.
But just maybe those moves could be less aggressive, as comments from Fed Chief Jerome Powell suggested. Australia's central bank has already slowed the pace of its rate hikes and delivered a mere 25 bps hike on Tuesday.
Data and central bank comments in days ahead will remain under scrutiny.
The much-hoped for dovish pivot remains elusive and battered world markets may have to settle for more but less for now.
(4) Mainland China’s zero-COVID policy gets tested. Fresh macro data comes out.
Reopening rumors made an excuse for buying China in recent days, but the weight of money is on the sidelines watching for the economy — especially sentiment and spending — to show signs of a turning point.
Trade, inflation and credit data due in days to come may give a glimpse of that progress.
But the most intense focus may fall on foreign exchange reserves, which are being soaked up as authorities seek to put the brakes on a currency heading for its worst year since 1994.
Down eight months in a row, China's reserves are within a whisker of the psychological $3 trillion level. A drop below would be a mirror on dollar strength, and perhaps the depth of resolve to resist it in North Asia, where reserves are draining from Seoul to Taipei and Tokyo.
(5) A U.N. climate summit happens, this time in Egypt.
Climate issues take center-stage as world leaders kick off the COP27 talks on reining-in emissions in Egypt's coastal resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday.
With the conflict in Ukraine, food and energy supply issues and surging inflation dominating the agenda, expectations for progress have focused less on fresh commitments to lower emissions and more on keeping the show on the road.
Crucial will be what steps the developed world takes towards helping poorer countries cut emissions and adapt their economies to its effects and pay for damage caused.
Also expected are updates and new commitments on a range of pledges made last year in Glasgow, including on deforestation, methane and carbon markets.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next, I show a wide variety of top-ranked large-cap stocks.
(1) W.R. Berkley (WRB - Free Report) : This is a $75 a share, very large Property and Casualty insurance firm, based in Greenwich, CT, with a market cap of $19.8B. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(2) Tenaris Sa (TS - Free Report) : This is a $32 a share Steel Pipe and Tube firm, organized in Luxembourg, with a market cap of $18.7B. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
(3) Zscaler (ZS - Free Report) : This is a $131 a share Cloud-based Internet Security firm, with a market cap of $18.7B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
In this environment, believe it or not, there are still stock trading gems to mine.
Key Global Macro
Thursday’s 8:30 ET U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) print is the major data event.
On Monday, Mainland China’s OCT exports are out. Prior is +10.7% y/y in USD terms.
Mainland China’s imports for OCT come out too. Prior is +0.3% y/y in USD terms.
On Tuesday, the U.S. midterm elections happen.
On Wednesday, Mainland Chin’s CPI for OCT comes out. The consensus is for +2.3% y/y, after a +2.8% y/y print in the prior month. This is COVID-suppressed data.
On Thursday, the U.S. CPI for OCT comes out. The prior is +8.2% y/y.
Mainland China’s M2 money supply (prior +11.2% y/y growth) and new loans (prior 2,470B) for OCT come out.
On Friday, it is Veteran’s Day in the USA. In the U.S., banks and post offices will close on Friday for the federal holiday. U.S. stock exchanges remain open.
U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for NOV should be 60, after a 59.9 OCT print.
Conclusion
Most big quarterly EPS reports are in.
However, Walt Disney (DIS - Free Report) reports on Wednesday, November 8th.
Here is Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian’s Nov. 2nd vintage Q3 earnings data—
That’s it for me.
John Blank
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist