It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Kinder Morgan (KMI Quick QuoteKMI - Free Report) . Shares have added about 6.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Kinder Morgan due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Kinder Morgan Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates

Kinder Morgan reported third-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings per share of 25 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 29 cents per share. However, the bottom line increased from the year-ago quarter’s 22 cents per share.

Total quarterly revenues of $5,177 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,522 million. The top line surged from $3,824 million in the prior-year quarter.

The lower-than-expected quarterly earnings were primarily caused by lower pipeline volumes of gasoline and diesel fuel. The negatives were partially offset by higher contributions from natural gas pipelines and CO2 segments.

Segmental Analysis

Natural Gas Pipelines: For the September-end quarter of 2022, adjusted earnings before depreciation, depletion and amortization expenses, including the amortization of the excess cost of equity investments (EBDA), rose to $1,159 million from $1,090 million a year ago. Higher gathering volumes primarily aided the segment.

Product Pipelines: The segment’s EBDA in the third quarter was $257 million, reflecting a decline from $280 million a year ago. Lower volumes of gasoline and diesel fuel affected the segment.

Gasoline transported volumes decreased 3% year over year in the September-end quarter but jet fuel volumes jumped 11%.

Terminals: Through the segment, Kinder Morgan generated quarterly EBDA of $240 million, up from the year-ago period’s $233 million. Contributions from refined product hub facilities primarily aided the unit.

CO2: The segment’s EBDA was recorded at $195 million, up from the year-ago quarter’s figure of $154 million. The outperformance was caused by increased realized prices of crude, NGL and CO2.

Operational Highlights

Expenses related to operations and maintenance totaled $712 million, up from $614 million a year ago. Total operating costs increased to $4,246 million in the third quarter from $2,980 million.

Distributable Cash Flow (DCF)

Kinder Morgan’s third-quarter DCF was $1,122 million compared with $1,013 million a year ago.

Balance Sheet

As of Sept 30, 2022, Kinder Morgan reported $483 million in cash and cash equivalents. The company’s long-term debt amounted to $29,000 million at the quarter end, resulting in a debt to capitalization of 49.6%.

Outlook

For 2022, KMI projects net income attributable to the midstream player of $2.5 billion. For this year, it expects a dividend of $1.11 per share, suggesting an increase of 3% from the prior-year reported figure. For 2022, KMI forecasts DCF generation of $4.7 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $7.2 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -5.56% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Kinder Morgan has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Kinder Morgan has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.