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Why Is American Public Education (APEI) Up 7.4% Since Last Earnings Report?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for American Public Education (APEI - Free Report) . Shares have added about 7.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is American Public Education due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
American Public Posts Q3 Loss, Enrollment Up Y/Y
American Public Education, Inc. reported better-than-expected results in third-quarter 2022. The top and the bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on the back of APUS and HCN segments’ contributions, acquisitions and cost-saving moves.
Yet, APEI’s loss was wider than the year-ago period’s levels despite revenue growth.
Delving Deeper
The company reported an adjusted loss of 20 cents per share, narrower than the consensus mark of 25 cents. However, the metric widened from the year-ago quarter’s figure of 1 cent.
Total revenues of $149.5 million topped the consensus mark of $147 million by almost 2% and increased 52.2% from the year-ago period’s levels. The upside was backed by the acquisition of Rasmussen University (“RU”) and GSUSA. Also, the solid contribution from APUS and HCN segments added to the positives.
Total costs and expenses increased more than 53% year over year to $150.6 million due to the inclusion of RU and GSUSA. Adjusted EBITDA increased 2.2% year over year to $9.46 million.
Segment Discussion
The company now operates within three segments, namely, the American Public University System’s (“APUS”), RU and Hondros College of Nursing segment (“HCN”).
APUS: Revenues of $68.7 million rose 4.3% from the year-ago period’s levels. APUS’ total net course registration increased 3.2% from the year-ago period’s levels to 85,800 in the third quarter, driven by strong active-duty enrollment. In the quarter, military registrations were up 8% and army registrations rose 14%.
RU: The segment reported revenues of $61.5 million for the quarter, up from $21.1 million reported a year ago. RU’s total student enrollment fell 8% from the prior-year period’s levels to 15,000 due to an 8% decline in both nursing and non-nursing enrollment.
HCN: Segment’s revenues inched up 1.5% year over year to $11.4 million. Total student enrollment at HCN increased 3.7% from the prior-year quarter’s levels to 2,410.
Financials
At the third quarter-end, American Public had total cash and cash equivalents of $185.5 million compared with $149.6 million at the 2021-end.
Q4 Guidance
APEI expects total revenues to range within negative 2-0% year over year to $151.2-$154.2 million. It anticipates the adjusted loss within 13-20 cents per share, indicating a decline of 126-140% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated within $13.9-$16.7 million, suggesting a decline of 43-53% year over year.
APUS’ total net course registrations are likely to be 84,000-87,500, reflecting a decline of 3% to growth of 1% year over year. HCN’s total student enrollment is expected to increase 4% from the prior year’s tally to 2,600. RU’s student enrollment will likely fall 9% from the year-ago quarter’s figure to 15,600. Nursing student enrollment is likely to fall 12% to 7,600 and non-nursing student enrollment is expected to decline 5% to 8,000 year over year.
2022 Guidance
For the full year, the company expects total revenues of $605.1-$608.1 million, up 44-45% year over year. It anticipates the adjusted loss within $5.94-$5.87 per share versus year-ago adjusted earnings of 97 cents. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated within $55.2-$58 million, suggesting a decline of 10-15% year over year.
APUS’ total net course registrations are likely to range between 347,300-350,800, reflecting a growth of 1-2% year over year.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -356% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, American Public Education has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, American Public Education has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
American Public Education belongs to the Zacks Schools industry. Another stock from the same industry, Strategic Education (STRA - Free Report) , has gained 1.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2022.
Strategic Education reported revenues of $263.12 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -2.6%. EPS of $0.33 for the same period compares with $0.59 a year ago.
Strategic Education is expected to post earnings of $0.95 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -17.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Strategic Education. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
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Why Is American Public Education (APEI) Up 7.4% Since Last Earnings Report?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for American Public Education (APEI - Free Report) . Shares have added about 7.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is American Public Education due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
American Public Posts Q3 Loss, Enrollment Up Y/Y
American Public Education, Inc. reported better-than-expected results in third-quarter 2022. The top and the bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on the back of APUS and HCN segments’ contributions, acquisitions and cost-saving moves.
Yet, APEI’s loss was wider than the year-ago period’s levels despite revenue growth.
Delving Deeper
The company reported an adjusted loss of 20 cents per share, narrower than the consensus mark of 25 cents. However, the metric widened from the year-ago quarter’s figure of 1 cent.
Total revenues of $149.5 million topped the consensus mark of $147 million by almost 2% and increased 52.2% from the year-ago period’s levels. The upside was backed by the acquisition of Rasmussen University (“RU”) and GSUSA. Also, the solid contribution from APUS and HCN segments added to the positives.
Total costs and expenses increased more than 53% year over year to $150.6 million due to the inclusion of RU and GSUSA. Adjusted EBITDA increased 2.2% year over year to $9.46 million.
Segment Discussion
The company now operates within three segments, namely, the American Public University System’s (“APUS”), RU and Hondros College of Nursing segment (“HCN”).
APUS: Revenues of $68.7 million rose 4.3% from the year-ago period’s levels. APUS’ total net course registration increased 3.2% from the year-ago period’s levels to 85,800 in the third quarter, driven by strong active-duty enrollment. In the quarter, military registrations were up 8% and army registrations rose 14%.
RU: The segment reported revenues of $61.5 million for the quarter, up from $21.1 million reported a year ago. RU’s total student enrollment fell 8% from the prior-year period’s levels to 15,000 due to an 8% decline in both nursing and non-nursing enrollment.
HCN: Segment’s revenues inched up 1.5% year over year to $11.4 million. Total student enrollment at HCN increased 3.7% from the prior-year quarter’s levels to 2,410.
Financials
At the third quarter-end, American Public had total cash and cash equivalents of $185.5 million compared with $149.6 million at the 2021-end.
Q4 Guidance
APEI expects total revenues to range within negative 2-0% year over year to $151.2-$154.2 million. It anticipates the adjusted loss within 13-20 cents per share, indicating a decline of 126-140% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated within $13.9-$16.7 million, suggesting a decline of 43-53% year over year.
APUS’ total net course registrations are likely to be 84,000-87,500, reflecting a decline of 3% to growth of 1% year over year. HCN’s total student enrollment is expected to increase 4% from the prior year’s tally to 2,600. RU’s student enrollment will likely fall 9% from the year-ago quarter’s figure to 15,600. Nursing student enrollment is likely to fall 12% to 7,600 and non-nursing student enrollment is expected to decline 5% to 8,000 year over year.
2022 Guidance
For the full year, the company expects total revenues of $605.1-$608.1 million, up 44-45% year over year. It anticipates the adjusted loss within $5.94-$5.87 per share versus year-ago adjusted earnings of 97 cents. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated within $55.2-$58 million, suggesting a decline of 10-15% year over year.
APUS’ total net course registrations are likely to range between 347,300-350,800, reflecting a growth of 1-2% year over year.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -356% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, American Public Education has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, American Public Education has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
American Public Education belongs to the Zacks Schools industry. Another stock from the same industry, Strategic Education (STRA - Free Report) , has gained 1.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2022.
Strategic Education reported revenues of $263.12 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -2.6%. EPS of $0.33 for the same period compares with $0.59 a year ago.
Strategic Education is expected to post earnings of $0.95 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -17.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Strategic Education. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.