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Pre-Markets Up Wednesday, Plenty of Econ Data Ahead

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Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Pre-market futures are pretty rosy this morning, with the Dow getting an assist from Nike’s (NKE - Free Report) strong fiscal Q3 earnings yesterday, +330 points at this hour. The S&P 500 is up +30 points at this hour, and the Nasdaq is +65. Market indices are still down for the month of December, however, especially after the downward shift following the latest Fed policy meeting. But for Q4 as a whole, the Dow is +14.4%, the S&P +6.6% and the Nasdaq is the laggard for the quarter, -0.3%.

Don’t look now, but the Dow may be putting up its strongest trading quarter since Q2 2020. It’s still down for the year 2022, but only -8%, versus -18% for the S&P and -30% for the Nasdaq. It’s also worth pointing out her that the highs of 2022 came in its opening trading days of the year (aside from the Nasdaq, which peaked in November 2021), so we’ve been playing a losing game all year. We’ll get to change all this once 2023 kicks off.

This morning, a new Current Account Deficit for Q3 has been released, with figures notably improved from Q2: -$217 billion on headline is better than the -$222 billion expected and the downwardly adjusted -$238 billion in the Q2 revision. We’re still talking gargantuan numbers, of course, but this marks the smallest current account gap in more than a year. Goods improved to -$271.1 billion from -$310.9 billion in Q2, largely on industrial machinery like aircraft parts.

After the opening bell, we’ll see a new December number on Consumer Confidence, which is expected to improve from the previous month, and Existing Home Sales for November, which are anticipated to come in lower than the prior month. We’re back-weighted with economic data this week — jobless claims, Q3 GDP revision, Durable Goods, PCE and New Home Sales all have yet to report — although with this being holiday week, we don’t expect a ton of volume, regardless the results from these reports.

If anyone’s still holding out for a Santa Claus Rally — and remember: these don’t “officially” begin until the week after Christmas, meaning next week — we may be seeing market participants getting a lead on the proceedings this morning. Aside from good management skills apparent at Nike, there isn’t a lot in the way of strong market narratives. Although maybe that’s the point: strong economic indicators is only going to keep the Fed with its current strict monetary policy.

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