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ALK has an impressive earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 18.72%.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for Alaska Air this earnings season.
Q4 Expectations
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alaska Air’s fourth-quarter 2022 revenues is pegged at $2.50 billion, indicating 31.88% growth year over year. The top line is likely to have been aided by the continued recovery in air-travel demand and an improvement in passenger revenues.
On the back of upbeat air-travel demand and favorable pricing, ALK has updated its fourth-quarter 2022 guidance. The company now expects fourth-quarter 2022 total revenues to increase 13-14% from the fourth quarter of 2019 actuals (the previous guidance had hinted at a 12-15% increase). Load factor (% of seats filled by passengers) is now expected in the 84-86% band (earlier guidance was in the 83-86% range).
Meanwhile, with oil prices coming down in the latter half of the December quarter, fuel price per gallon is now expected in the range of $3.50-$3.60 (earlier guidance was in the $3.50-$3.70 band) for fourth-quarter 2022. Although fuel cost guidance in the higher end has been lowered, escalating operating expenses, primarily due to fuel prices, continue to bother Alaska Air’s bottom line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALK’s fourth-quarter 2022 earnings has been revised downward by 12% in the past 90 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for economic fuel cost per gallon is pegged at $3.62 for the fourth quarter, indicating 60.1% growth year over year.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Alaska Air this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Alaska Air has an Earnings ESP of -7.82% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Highlights of Q3
Alaska Air's third-quarter 2022 earnings of $2.53 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.41. The bottom line surged 72.1% year over year. Operating revenues of $2,828 million outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,827.4 million. The top line jumped 45% year over year, with passenger revenues accounting for 92.5% of the top line and soaring 47% owing to continued recovery in air-travel demand.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat their fourth-quarter 2022 earnings:
American Airlines has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for fourth-quarter 2022. AAL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.62%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s fourth-quarter 2022 earnings has been revised upward by more than 100% in the past 90 days.
JetBlue Airways (JBLU - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.77% and a Zacks Rank #3. JBLU will release results on Jan 26.
JetBlue has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for fourth-quarter 2022.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JBLU’s fourth-quarter 2022 earnings has been revised upward by 58.3% in the past 90 days.
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.33% and a Zacks Rank #3. NSC will release results on Jan 25.
NSC has an expected earnings growth rate of 9.29% for fourth-quarter 2022. `NSC delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.06%, on average.
NSC has a long-term expected growth rate of 8.96%.
Image: Bigstock
What's in the Cards for Alaska Air (ALK) in Q4 Earnings?
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2022 results on Jan 26, before market open.
ALK has an impressive earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 18.72%.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Alaska Air Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Alaska Air Group, Inc. Quote
Let’s see how things are shaping up for Alaska Air this earnings season.
Q4 Expectations
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alaska Air’s fourth-quarter 2022 revenues is pegged at $2.50 billion, indicating 31.88% growth year over year. The top line is likely to have been aided by the continued recovery in air-travel demand and an improvement in passenger revenues.
On the back of upbeat air-travel demand and favorable pricing, ALK has updated its fourth-quarter 2022 guidance. The company now expects fourth-quarter 2022 total revenues to increase 13-14% from the fourth quarter of 2019 actuals (the previous guidance had hinted at a 12-15% increase). Load factor (% of seats filled by passengers) is now expected in the 84-86% band (earlier guidance was in the 83-86% range).
Meanwhile, with oil prices coming down in the latter half of the December quarter, fuel price per gallon is now expected in the range of $3.50-$3.60 (earlier guidance was in the $3.50-$3.70 band) for fourth-quarter 2022. Although fuel cost guidance in the higher end has been lowered, escalating operating expenses, primarily due to fuel prices, continue to bother Alaska Air’s bottom line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALK’s fourth-quarter 2022 earnings has been revised downward by 12% in the past 90 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for economic fuel cost per gallon is pegged at $3.62 for the fourth quarter, indicating 60.1% growth year over year.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Alaska Air this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Alaska Air has an Earnings ESP of -7.82% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Highlights of Q3
Alaska Air's third-quarter 2022 earnings of $2.53 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.41. The bottom line surged 72.1% year over year. Operating revenues of $2,828 million outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,827.4 million. The top line jumped 45% year over year, with passenger revenues accounting for 92.5% of the top line and soaring 47% owing to continued recovery in air-travel demand.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat their fourth-quarter 2022 earnings:
American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.79% and a Zacks Rank #2. AAL will release results on Jan 26. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
American Airlines has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for fourth-quarter 2022. AAL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.62%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s fourth-quarter 2022 earnings has been revised upward by more than 100% in the past 90 days.
JetBlue Airways (JBLU - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.77% and a Zacks Rank #3. JBLU will release results on Jan 26.
JetBlue has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for fourth-quarter 2022.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JBLU’s fourth-quarter 2022 earnings has been revised upward by 58.3% in the past 90 days.
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.33% and a Zacks Rank #3. NSC will release results on Jan 25.
NSC has an expected earnings growth rate of 9.29% for fourth-quarter 2022. `NSC delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.06%, on average.
NSC has a long-term expected growth rate of 8.96%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.