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Will Strong Lithium Prices Drive Albemarle's (ALB) Q4 Earnings?

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Albemarle Corporation (ALB - Free Report) will release fourth-quarter 2022 results after the closing bell on Feb 15.

The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters. In this timeframe, it delivered an earnings surprise of 16.6%, on average. It posted an earnings surprise of 9.7% in the last reported quarter. The company is likely to have benefited from strong lithium prices and volumes and its cost-reduction actions in the fourth quarter.

Albemarle’s shares have gained 17.9% over a year compared with an 8.5% rise of the industry it belongs to.

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Let’s see how things are shaping up for the upcoming announcement.

What do the Estimates Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues for Albemarle for the to-be-reported quarter stands at $2,596 million, reflecting an increase of around 190.4% from the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales for the Lithium unit stands at $2,032 million, indicating a 401.7% year-over-year rise.

The consensus estimate for the Bromine Specialties segment for the fourth quarter is pegged at $332 million, reflecting a 14% increase on a year-over-year basis.
 
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales for the Catalysts segment is pinned at $218 million, suggesting a 9.5% year-over-year rise.

Some Factors to Watch For

Albemarle is likely to have benefited from higher volumes and prices in its lithium business in the fourth quarter. Higher lithium prices aided by strong demand and tight supply are likely to have driven the company’s sales and margins in the December quarter.  Tight supply conditions and growing demand for electric vehicles are driving lithium prices.

The company is also likely to have gained from higher volumes in its lithium business in the quarter to be reported. Higher customer demand, new capacity and plant productivity improvements are expected to have supported volumes. The La Negra III/IV expansion in Chile is also likely to have contributed to higher volumes. Higher prices and volumes are expected to have driven the company’s lithium sales and margins in the fourth quarter.

Benefits of the company’s cost-saving, pricing and productivity initiatives are also expected to get reflected in the quarter to be reported. Its cost and productivity actions are expected to have supported margins in the quarter.

However, the company’s Bromine Specialties unit is expected to have faced headwinds from higher raw material and freight costs. Demand weakness in consumer and industrial electronics and building & construction markets is also likely to have affected the segment’s performance.

The performance in the Catalysts segment is also likely to have been affected by higher costs. The segment is expected to have witnessed continued challenges from increased input costs, especially higher natural gas costs in Europe due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

 

Albemarle Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

Albemarle Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Albemarle Corporation price-eps-surprise | Albemarle Corporation Quote

 

Zacks Model

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Albemarle this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Albemarle is 0.00%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $8.46. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Albemarle carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider, as our model shows these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Celanese Corporation (CE - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Feb 23, has an Earnings ESP of +0.37%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celanese’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.56. CE currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Quaker Chemical Corporation (KWR - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Feb 23, has an Earnings ESP of +7.38%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Quaker Chemical’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.22. KWR currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Teck Resources Limited (TECK - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Feb 21, has an Earnings ESP of +9.05%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Teck Resources’ fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 96 cents. TECK currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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